Can Humana Beat Q2 Earnings Estimates on Insurance Unit Strength?

Humana Inc. HUM is set to report second-quarter 2025 results on July 30, before the opening bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings is currently pegged at $6.32 per shareon revenues of $31.78 billion.

The second-quarter earnings estimate has remained stable over the past 60 days. However, the bottom-line projection indicates a year-over-year decrease of 9.2%. Yet, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues implies year-over-year growth of 8.2%.

For full-year 2025, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Humana’s revenues is pegged at $126.1 billion, implying a rise of 7.6% year over year. Also, the consensus mark for current year EPS is pegged at $16.37, implying a gain of around 1% on a year-over-year basis.

HUM’s earnings beat the consensus estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 14.3%.

Humana Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Humana Inc. price-eps-surprise | Humana Inc. Quote

Q2 Earnings Whispers for HUM

Our proven model predicts a likely earnings beat for the company this time around as well. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is precisely the case here.

Humana has an Earnings ESP of +10.51% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

What’s Shaping HUM’s Q2 Results?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HUM’s second-quarter premiums indicates a 7.4% increase from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure, whereas our model predicts 7% growth. We expect total Medicare to witness 3.8% growth in the quarter under review. Similarly, the consensus mark for service revenues signals a 19% increase from a year ago, whereas our model predicts a 20.8% jump.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for operating income from Insurance unit indicates 21.4% growth from a year ago. The above-mentioned factors are expected to have positioned the company for an earnings beat in the second quarter.

However, the same for CenterWell unit predicts a 0.4% decline from the year-ago level. Furthermore, the consensus estimate indicates that Humana’s investment income will see a nearly 9% drop from the year-ago level. We expect total operating costs to increase more than 5% in the second quarter, bringing the figure close to $30 billion. This is likely to have led to a year-over-year decline in the bottom line.

The consensus mark for overall benefits expense ratio is pegged at 89.47% for the to-be-reported quarter, deteriorating from 89% a year ago. Also, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for insurance membership predicts a 5.8% year-over-year decline, whereas specialty membership is expected to decline 0.7%. These are likely to have partially offset the positives.

How Did Peers Perform?

Several healthcare companies, including Centene Corporation CNC, Molina Healthcare, Inc. MOH and Elevance Health, Inc. ELV, have already reported their financial results for the June quarter of 2025. Here’s how they had performed:

Centene reported second-quarter 2025 adjusted loss per share of 16 cents, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of earnings of 68 cents. The weak quarterly earnings took a hit from rising medical costs, declining service revenues, investment and other income, and lower membership in Medicaid and Medicare businesses. The negatives were partially offset by Centene’s solid premium growth and rate hikes.

Molina reported second-quarter 2025 adjusted EPS of $5.48, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.50, due to higher medical care costs. This was partly offset by Molina’s rising premiums and rate hikes.

Elevance reported second-quarter 2025 adjusted EPS of $8.84, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.5% due to rising medical cost trends in the ACA and Medicaid business. Elevance’s rising premiums and product revenues have partially offset the negatives.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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