ONE Group Gears Up for Q2 Earnings: What's in the Cards for the Stock?

The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc. STKS is scheduled to release second-quarter 2025 results today, after the closing bell. In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 182.4%.

How Are Estimates Placed?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter earnings per share is pegged at 8 cents, flat year over year.

For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at $209.3 million. The metric indicates 21.4% growth from the year-ago quarter’s figure.

Let us analyze the factors that are likely to have impacted the company’s performance in the quarter to be reported.

Factors at Play for STKS’ Q2 Results

ONE Group’s second-quarter top line is expected to have increased from the year-ago quarter’s levels, supported by several key factors stemming from its recent growth initiatives and brand performance.

A major contributor is the full-quarter revenue impact from the acquired Benihana and RA Sushi brands, which now represent a substantial portion of the company’s total revenues. The company is also likely to have benefited from new unit openings, specifically the addition of six restaurants since early 2024, including a new STK in Topanga and a Benihana in San Mateo, which helped broaden the revenue base.

Strategic pricing programs are likely to have aided revenues further, such as value-driven happy hour menus and midweek dining bundles, which appealed to cost-conscious consumers, alongside targeted marketing efforts and early traction from the “Friends with Benefits” loyalty program. These initiatives were designed to drive traffic and improve customer engagement across both upscale and casual segments.

However, earnings for the quarter are expected to have remained flat despite the revenue strength. Higher interest expenses tied to increased debt from the Benihana acquisition, along with seasonally softer operating margins at STK and elevated general and administrative expenses from integration activities, are likely to have weighed on the bottom line.

What the Zacks Model Unveils About STKS

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for ONE Group this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. This is not the case here.

STKS’s Earnings ESP: ONE Group currently has an Earnings ESP (difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate) of -28.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter. 

STKS’s Zacks Rank: ONE Group currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are some companies in the Zacks restaurants sector that, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in the quarter to be reported.

Dutch Bros BROS currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.62% and a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Dutch Bros’ earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 92.37%. For the second quarter of 2025, Dutch Bros’ earnings are expected to decrease 5.3%.

Brinker International EAT currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.93% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

With the average surprise of 24.52%, Brinker’s earnings beat estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once. Brinker’s earnings for the second quarter of 2025 are expected to increase 51%.

McDonald's MCD currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.43% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

With the average negative surprise of 0.22%, McDonald's earnings beat estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once. McDonald's earnings for the second quarter of 2025 are expected to increase 6.1%. 

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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