Countdown to NVIDIA Earnings, PCE Report Friday

Wednesday, August 27, 2025

Pre-market futures are mostly up slightly again this morning, with no major economic prints this Hump Day to distract from the laser-focus most market participants currently have today: Q2 earnings results from NVIDIA NVDA, the world’s top chipmaker and market play on the AI space.

Carrying a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) into this afternoon’s report, NVIDIA currently controls about 8% of the entire S&P 500. The $4+ trillion market cap behemoth has gained roughly $2 trillion since its early April selloff. It’s coming of an earnings miss in Q1, but is expected to grow a robust +47% on the bottom line year over year. Revenues are expected to grow more than +53% to $46.14 billion, which would be an all-time record high.

Currently, the Dow and S&P 500 are flat in early trading, with the Nasdaq -16 points. The small-cap Russell 2000, which has led market indexes over the past few trading days, is down -6 points at this hour. Bond yields are flattening on the nearer-term ends: +4.27% on the 10-year (still 2 basis points [bps] higher than the high range of a perceived 25 bps Fed rate cut in September), +3.65% on the 2-year, and creeping up to +4.93% on the 30-year.

Q2 Earnings Ahead of the Bell: KSS, FL & More

Wisconsin-based department store Kohl’s KSS impressed investors to the upside this morning, posting a positive earnings surprise of nearly +70% to $0.56 per share this morning. The Zacks consensus was looking for $0.33 per share. Revenues, however, came in light of expectations to $3.35 billion. Shares are currently up +19% in early trading as the company narrowed revenue guidance but vastly increased its outlook on earnings.

Foot Locker FL, on the other hand — which agreed to be sold to Dick’s Sporting Goods DKS in May for $2.4 billion — posted a huge earnings miss in its Q2 results this morning: -$0.27 per share versus expectations of +$0.05, for a -640% negative earnings surprise. Revenues missed by a much slimmer margin: -0.24% to $1.86 billion. The closing date for the Dick’s acquisition comes a week from next Monday. For more on FL’s earnings, click here.

Elsewhere, Abercrombie & Fitch ANF posted a +2.2% earnings surprise this morning, to $2.32 per share. Sales growth slowed overall, but its Hollister brand grew +19% in the quarter. Shares are -3% on the news. Mastercraft Boat Holdings MCFT shares are up +11% on a boffo earnings beat in its fiscal Q4 this morning: 40 cents per share versus expectations of 18 cents, for a +122% positive surprise.

What to Expect from the Stock Market Going Forward

All-time record-high indexes are in the balance! Much will pivot on whether NVIDIA can suitably impress investors in its earnings report — and forward guidance — after today’s closing bell. But perhaps even more important than that, in the longer term, is how Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) come out for July on Friday morning.

The PCE, as you likely already know, is the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation. This is because other monthly economic reports feed into PCE, creating a sort of cumulative monthly report. It’s less subject to revisions than other monthly metrics as a result.

In recent months, headline year-over-year PCE had at last begun to approach the Fed’s optimum inflation rate of 2% — in April of this year, PCE had shrunk to +2.2% year over year. But in subsequent months we’ve seen 20 bps jumps: May +2.4% and June +2.6%. We see tariff adjustments potentially pushing these numbers higher still in the July report.

Core PCE year over year, stripping out volatile food and energy costs (which were lower this spring and summer) was +2.6% in April — the lowest level since pre-Great Reopening in March 2021. But in the most recent two reports, this metric has hovered at +2.8%. Another 20 bps jump here would bring us to +3.0%, which may be psychologically significant, and likely headline-inducing.

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Kohl's Corporation (KSS): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
Abercrombie & Fitch Company (ANF): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
Foot Locker, Inc. (FL): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. (DKS): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
MASTERCRAFT BOAT HOLDINGS, INC. (MCFT): Free Stock Analysis Report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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