ExxonMobil Flags Coal Comeback as Threat to Net-Zero Goals

Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM has issued an update on the future of global emissions, warning that the world’s net-zero targets are increasingly slipping beyond the 2050 horizon, per a Bloomberg report. In its recently published Global Energy Outlook, ExxonMobil stated that global emissions are on track to decrease only 25% by mid-century. This is far less than the more than two-thirds reduction needed to align with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (“IPCC”) recommendations for keeping global warming in check.

The report highlighted several troubling trends, including the rebound in coal consumption driven by high energy costs and delays in the rollout of renewable power sources. Global emissions in 2050 are now projected to be nearly 4% higher than ExxonMobil’s forecast a year ago. The company points to increased coal usage to supplement the variable output of wind and solar, as well as a slowdown in electric vehicle sales across the United States and Europe, both of which are supporting continued high demand for oil.

ExxonMobil now expects oil demand to peak around 2030 but then remain steady at above 100 million barrels per day through 2050. The company has raised its natural gas forecast, projecting global consumption to increase over 20% by mid-century, caused by rising global power demand. According to these projections, oil and natural gas together will account for 55% of the world’s energy in 2050, down only a percentage point from 2024 levels. Meanwhile, coal and bioenergy are anticipated to account for 14% and 10%, respectively, of the global energy mix at that time.

ExxonMobil concludes that economic challenges, consumer sensitivity to high costs, and the persistent reliance on fossil fuels, particularly coal, are hampering its net zero emissions goals. With renewable energy adoption slowing and emissions targets slipping further out of reach, ExxonMobil’s outlook highlights the pressing need for greater urgency in pursuing global climate goals.

XOM’s Zacks Rank and Key Picks

XOM currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Investors interested in the energy sector may look at a couple of better-ranked stocks like Precision Drilling Corporation PDS, Antero Midstream Corporation AM and Archrock, Inc. AROC. While Precision Drilling sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) at present, both Antero Midstream and Archrockcarry a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.           

Precision Drilling is an oilfield services company. It provides contract drilling, well servicing and strategic support services to the oil and gas industry in North America and internationally. It provides land drilling, directional drilling, turnkey drilling, camp and catering services, and procures and distributes oilfield supplies.

PDS’ earnings beat estimates in two of the trailing four quarters and missed in the other two, delivering an average surprise of 977.7%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings indicates a 14.2% year-over-year decline.

Antero Midstream generates stable cash flow by providing midstream services under long-term contracts with Antero Resources. The company prioritizes debt reduction by effectively utilizing free cash flow after dividends. Antero Midstream’s higher dividend yield compared to its sub-industry peers reflects its commitment to generating shareholder returns.

AM’s earnings beat estimates in two of the trailing four quarters, met once and missed in the other, delivering an average surprise of 1.13%.

Archrock benefits from nearly full fleet utilization at 96%, indicating strong demand for its natural gas compression services and effective use of its high-cost equipment. The company’s recent acquisition of NGCS has expanded its large-horsepower asset base and improved customer relationships, boosting both scale and earnings potential. However, risks remain. 

AROC’s earnings beat estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and met in the remaining one, delivering an average surprise of 6.50%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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