MOS' Potash Volumes Improve: Will Hydrofloat Drive Them Further?

The Mosaic Company MOS saw improved potash sales volumes in the second quarter, thanks to a pickup in production. Its potash sales volume totaled 2.3 million tons, improving from 2.1 million tons in the prior quarter, which was impacted by production curtailments in the wake of logistics challenges due to unfavorable weather conditions. 

For full-year 2025, the company raised its potash production volume guidance to between 9.3 million and 9.5 million tons, factoring in stronger market conditions driven by improved prices and strong demand. 

The Esterhazy Hydrofloat project, which added 400,000 tons in milling capacity, is complete and produced the first potash tons in July 2025, with a ramp-up expected by the end of the year. Hydrofloat will allow Mosaic to produce low-cost potash tons. Volumes are expected to expand further at the Esterhazy operation with the ramp-up of Hydrofloat. Higher production is expected to drive potash sales volumes in the second half of 2025.  

Among its peers, Nutrien Ltd. NTR registered potash sales volumes of roughly 3.99 million tons in the second quarter. Nutrien’s second-quarter and first-half 2025 potash sales volumes reached record highs, driven by favorable potash affordability and robust consumption in North America and major offshore markets. Nutrien raised its potash sales volume guidance to 13.9-14.5 million tons, driven by anticipated higher global demand.
 
Intrepid Potash, Inc. IPI saw a 25% increase in potash sales volumes to 69,000 tons. The solid increase in Intrepid Potash’s sales volumes was driven by a rise in production. Intrepid Potash expects potash production of 270,000-280,000 tons for full-year 2025.

MOS’ Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates

Mosaic has gained 32.6% year to date compared with the Zacks Fertilizers industry’s rise of 18%.

From a valuation standpoint, MOS is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 11.18, a roughly 14.1% discount to the industry average of 13.01X. It carries a Value Score of B.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MOS’ 2025 and 2026 earnings implies a year-over-year rise of 60.1% and a decline of 11.8%, respectively. The EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been trending higher over the past 60 days.

MOS stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). 

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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