Cracker Barrel Gears Up for Q4 Earnings: Things to Keep in Mind

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. CBRL is scheduled to report fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results on Sept. 17, after the closing bell.

CBRL’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on one occasion, the average surprise being 68.5%.

Trend in the Estimate Revision of CBRL

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal fourth-quarter earnings per share is pegged at 78 cents, indicating a deterioration of 20.4% from 98 cents reported in the year-ago quarter.

For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at $856.9 million. The projection indicates a 4.2% decline from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

Factors Likely to Shape CBRL’s Quarterly Results

Cracker Barrel’s fiscal fourth-quarter performance is expected to reflect the company's ongoing implementation of its transformation plan, with early momentum from the reintroduced Campfire meals and brand refinement initiatives to deliver incremental sales and traffic. Even while consumer buying habits remained conservative, advertising, menu innovation and loyalty program perks likely helped to aid comparable restaurant sales.

A strong emphasis on menu innovation is expected to have bolstered demand, particularly through the Campfire lineup, which added new options such as the shrimp and andouille sausage skillet at an accessible price point. New offerings, such as the Louisiana-style shrimp skillet and shrimp & grits, along with expanded pancake selections, might have resonated well with guests in the fiscal fourth quarter.

Increased focus on AI-driven personalization within the Rewards program, along with refined marketing efforts across digital and experiential channels, is expected to have aided the company’s performance in the fiscal fourth quarter.

However, headwinds likely weighed on overall results. Retail sales trends remained pressured, with discretionary spending softness compounded by tariff-related cost impacts on imported goods, which might have negatively impacted the company’s performance in the fiscal fourth quarter. Our model predicts retail revenues to fall 3.1% year over year to $157.9 million.

Macroeconomic challenges, including tariff-related costs, elevated egg costs and cautious consumer sentiment, might have created headwinds during the fiscal fourth quarter. Egg-related commodity inflation is expected to affect the performance. For fiscal 2025, the company expects the rate of commodity inflation and hourly restaurant wage inflation to be in the mid-2% range, each. For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, our model expects restaurant cost of goods sold (as a percentage of restaurant revenues) to expand 70 basis points year over year to 31.1%.

What Our Model Says About CBRL Stock

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Cracker Barrel this time around. A stock needs to have a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) to beat earnings. However, that is not the case here.

Earnings ESP for CBRL: Cracker Barrel has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Cracker Barrel’s Zacks Rank: The company currently has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are three companies you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat:

Build-A-Bear Workshop, Inc. BBW currently has an Earnings ESP of +14.55% and a Zacks Rank #1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The company’s earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 21.3%. BBW’s earnings for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 are expected to decrease by 24.6%.

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated CAKE currently has an Earnings ESP of +3.97% and a Zacks Rank of 2. 

The company’s earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 15.2%. CAKE’s earnings for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 are expected to increase by 3.5%.

The Kroger Co. KR currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.07% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

The company’s earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being    2.1%. KR’s earnings for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 are expected to increase by 6.1%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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