Markets Up but Defensive ETFs Are Still a Wise Choice

September has been a good month for the S&P 500 index, with the broad market index gaining about 1.92% month to date. With the Fed set to cut interest rates in its September meeting, the index could see additional upside in the weeks ahead.

However, falling consumer confidence, increasing core inflation levels and persistent economic tensions raise the odds of a downside, making defensive bets a smart play. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine-Russia, along with a slowdown in hiring, further support the case for increasing exposure to defensive funds.

Weak Consumer Sentiment Signals Caution

According to preliminary Surveys of Consumers by the University of Michigan, consumer sentiment declined 4.8% to 55.4 in September from 58.2 in August and was 21% lower compared to the same period last year.

The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Expectations fell 7.3% in September from the previous month and 30.4% from a year ago. Additionally, long-term inflation expectations rose for the second consecutive month, reaching 3.9% in September, with year-ahead inflation expectations remaining unchanged from last month.

U.S. Equity Funds Experience Major Outflow

According to LSEG Lipper data, as quoted on Reuters, in the week ending Sept. 10, U.S. equity funds saw $10.44 billion in net outflows, marking the largest weekly outflow in five weeks, as investors looked to book profits amid concerns over high valuations and geopolitical tensions.

Investors also offloaded large-cap and mid-cap equity funds, with net outflows of $18.22 billion and $912 million, respectively.

Tariff Spats and Politics Add to Market Strain

The Fed's credibility with the public could be weakened by Trump's political pressure. Concerns about the Fed’s independence and the legal uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration’s tariffs contribute to the increasingly volatile macroeconomic environment.

Economic uncertainty and trade tensions fueled by tariffs introduced by the Trump administration are far from over. A U.S. Treasury spokesperson, as quoted on Reuters, urged G7 and EU allies to impose “meaningful tariffs” on China and India-made goods to curb their purchases of Russian oil, raising the risk of heightened trade tensions and economic uncertainty.

ETFs to Consider

Preserving capital and cushioning volatility are key for investors looking to navigate a potentially tumultuous period. Investors should adopt a defensive approach as it's better to be cautious than unprepared.

With ETFs offering diversification and tax efficiency, investors can use them to increase exposure to defensive funds. Investing in these sectors provides dual benefits, protecting portfolios during market downturns and offering gains when the market trends upward.

Below, we highlight a few areas in which investors can increase their exposure.

Consumer Staples ETFs

Increasing exposure to consumer staples funds can bring balance and stability to investors’ portfolios. Investors can put more money in consumer staples funds to safeguard themselves from potential market downturns.

The S&P 500 Consumer Staples Index has gained 4.13% year to date. Investors can consider Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund XLP, Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF VDC and iShares U.S. Consumer Staples ETF IYK.

Value ETFs

Vanguard Value ETF VTV, iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF IWD and iShares S&P 500 Value ETF IVE, sporting a Zacks ETF Rank #1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy), can be appealing options. Characterized by solid fundamentals, such as earnings, dividends, book value and cash flow, these stocks trade below their intrinsic value, representing undervaluation.

Quality ETFs

Investors can look at funds like iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF QUAL, Invesco S&P 500 Quality ETF SPHQ and JPMorgan U.S. Quality Factor ETF JQUA. Amid market uncertainty, quality investing emerges as a strategic response, providing a buffer against potential headwinds.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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