Elme Communities (ELME): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Elme Communities on Valueinvestorsclub.com by Rulon Gardner. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on ELME. Elme Communities's share was trading at $16.93 as of September 18th. ELME’s trailing P/E was 38.57 according to Yahoo Finance.

Elme Communities (ELME), formerly Washington REIT, has opted for a full liquidation following years of underwhelming shareholder returns. The company announced the sale of 19 properties to Cortland for $1.6 billion, with remaining assets, including the Watergate 600 office building, to be marketed separately. Cortland, which previously acquired Pure Multifamily REIT in a $1.2 billion deal, brings credibility to the transaction, lowering execution risk. Shareholders will receive an initial special distribution of $14.50 to $14.82 per share, in addition to a $0.18 quarterly dividend payable on October 3, 2025.

Future distributions are projected at $2.90 to $3.50 per share, resulting in a total payout that implies 7% to 12.6% upside from current levels. Based on the September 19 closing price of $16.46, investors will recoup roughly 89% to 91% of value via the initial distribution by year-end. Using conservative assumptions, this translates to potential IRRs of 14% to 26%, making the liquidation particularly attractive for event-driven and special situation investors compared with typical merger arbitrage spreads.

Elme’s apartment portfolio, concentrated in the Washington, D.C. and Atlanta markets, skews toward older assets, many of which are included in the Cortland deal. Risks to the thesis include delays in liquidation or lower-than-expected proceeds from remaining asset sales, though the primary $1.6 billion transaction appears low risk given Cortland’s track record. With announced distributions already conservative by management’s estimates, investors are positioned to benefit from meaningful near-term cash returns, making Elme Communities a classic Buffett-style liquidation with a compelling risk/reward setup.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Simon Property Group, Inc. (SPG) by David in April 2025, which highlighted its disciplined capital structure, strong free cash flow, and dividend growth supported by luxury tenants. The company’s stock price has appreciated approximately by 21.64% since our coverage as conservative financing and tenant strategy strengthened confidence. The thesis still stands. Rulon Gardner shares a similar perspective on Elme Communities (ELME), but emphasizes value realization through liquidation.

Elme Communities is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 23 hedge fund portfolios held ELME at the end of the second quarter which was 26 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of ELME as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.