Simmons First National to Report Q3 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

Simmons First National Corporation SFNC is slated to report third-quarter 2025 results on Oct. 16, 2025, after market close. The bank’s third-quarter 2025 earnings and revenues are expected to have risen from the year-ago quarter’s reported level.

In the last reported quarter, the company’s results benefited from a rise in net interest income (“NII”) and a decline in expenses. Yet, lower non-interest income acted as a spoilsport.

SFNC has a decent earnings surprise history. The company’s earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, the average beat being 1.44%.

Simmons First National Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Simmons First National Corporation price-eps-surprise | Simmons First National Corporation Quote

Factors to Influence SFNC’s Q3 Earnings

Loans & NII:  The Federal Reserve reduced interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.00-4.25% in September. With rates remaining largely stable throughout most of the quarter, funding and deposit costs are likely to have stabilized, supporting growth for Simmons First National’s NII in the third quarter.

Also, per the Fed’s latest data, the demand for overall loans was solid in the first two months of the quarter. Thus, the company’s lending activity is likely to have witnessed an improvement in the quarter to be reported.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NII is pegged at $184.9 million, which indicates a 7.7% rise from the prior quarter's reported number.

Non-Interest Revenues: Mortgage rates declined notably during the third quarter compared with levels seen at the start of the year. Although rates fluctuated throughout the quarter, they remained within a range-bound. As such, refinancing activity and origination volumes were decent. As a result, SFNC’s mortgage income is expected to have witnessed some growth. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for mortgage lending income for the third quarter of 2025 is pinned at $1.8 million, implying a 3.6% increase from the prior quarter's reported level.

The consensus estimate for wealth management fees is pegged at $38.2 million, which indicates a rise of 16.5% from the quarter-ago reported level.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for debit and credit card fees is pegged at $34.3 billion, implying a 4.3% rise from the prior quarter's reported level.

The consensus estimate for service charges on deposit accounts is pegged at $50.7 billion, indicating a 1.6% rise from the quarter-ago reported level.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SFNC’s total non-interest income is pegged at $176.8 billion, indicating a marginal increase from the quarter-ago reported figure.

Asset Quality: As Simmons First National had kept a substantial amount of money for potential delinquent loans (mainly commercial loan defaults) in the prior quarters, we anticipate it to have kept a modest reserve this time, given the expectations of two more interest rate cuts amid the impact of the Trump administration’s tariffs on inflation.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for non-performing assets of $160.3 million indicates a 3.9% fall from the quarter-ago reported figure. The same for non-performing loans of $160.3 million indicates a 4.5% fall from the quarter-ago reported level.

What Our Quantitative Model Unveils for SFNC

Per our proven model, we do not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Simmons First National this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you can see below.

The Earnings ESP for SFNC is 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

SFNC currently carries a Zacks Rank of 2. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter earnings of 48 cents per share has been unchanged in the past seven days. The figure indicates an increase of 29.7% from the year-ago reported figure. 

The consensus estimate for third-quarter 2025 revenues is pegged at $228.9 million, indicating a rise of 30.9% from the year-ago reported figure.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some bank stocks, which, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time around.

Northern Trust Corporation NTRS is scheduled to announce third-quarter 2025 results on Oct. 22. The company has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +0.55% at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Quarterly earnings estimates for NTRS have been revised upward to $2.24 per share over the past week.

BOK Financial BOKF has an Earnings ESP of +4.76% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present. The company is expected to release its third-quarter 2025 earnings on Oct. 20.

Quarterly earnings estimates for BOKF have remained unchanged in the past seven days, indicating an increase of 4.8% from the year-ago reported figure.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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