Molina Healthcare Set for Q3 Earnings: Revenue Gains, But Profit Pains

Healthcare plan provider, Molina Healthcare, Inc. MOH, is set to report third-quarter 2025 results on Oct. 22, 2025, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings is currently pegged at $3.97 per shareon revenues of $10.9 billion. 

The third-quarter earnings estimate remained stable over the past 60 days. The bottom-line projection indicates a year-over-year decrease of 33.9%. However, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests year-over-year growth of 5.4%.

For full-year 2025, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Molina Healthcare’s revenues is pegged at $44.54 billion, implying a rise of 9.6% year over year. However, the consensus mark for 2025 earnings per share is pegged at $18.87, indicating a decline of 16.7% on a year-over-year basis.

Molina Healthcare beat the consensus estimate in two of the last four quarters and missed twice, with the average surprise being negative 2.2%. This is depicted in the figure below.

Molina Healthcare, Inc Price and EPS Surprise

Molina Healthcare, Inc price-eps-surprise | Molina Healthcare, Inc Quote

Q3 Earnings Whispers for MOH

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for the company this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That’s not the case here.

MOH has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

What’s Shaping MOH’s Q3 Results?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for premiums indicates growth of 6.3% year over year in the third quarter, while our model estimate suggests a 5.3% increase. The consensus estimate for the Medicare premiums is $1.5 billion, up 8% year over year.

While Medicaid membership is expected to have decreased 2.8% year over year, MOH’s Medicare membership is projected to witness 6.5% growth. Furthermore, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the Marketplace membership suggests a 60.8% increase from the year-ago period.

However, the consensus mark for the medical care ratio (MCR) in Marketplace is pegged at 84.67% in the to-be-reported quarter, up from 73% a year ago. The consensus mark for total MCR is pegged at 90.32%, up from 89.20% a year ago.

Along with this, rising costs and lower investment income make an earnings beat uncertain. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for investment income indicates a 15.3% decline year over year. Our model estimate for third-quarter total operating expenses suggests a more than 6% increase from the year-ago period, due to higher medical care costs and G&A expenses.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

While an earnings beat looks uncertain for Molina Healthcare, here are some companies from the broader Medical space that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time around:

Select Medical Holdings Corporation SEM has an Earnings ESP of +8.58% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Select Medical’s bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter of 18 cents per share has witnessed one upward revision against no downward movement over the past week. The consensus mark for Select Medical’s revenues is pegged at $1.32 billion.

CVS Health Corporation CVS has an Earnings ESP of +0.28% and a Zacks Rank of 2.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CVS Health’s bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at $1.36, signaling 24.8% growth from a year ago. CVS Health’s earnings beat estimates in each of the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 22.6%.

Envista Holdings Corporation NVST has an Earnings ESP of +4.26% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Envista’s bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter indicates 125% year-over-year growth. Envista’s earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with an average surprise of 16.5%.

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research