Mattel Gears Up to Report Q3 Earnings: Things to Keep in Mind

Mattel, Inc. MAT is scheduled to report third-quarter 2025 results on Oct. 21, after the closing bell.

In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 18.8%, and revenues missed the same by 3.8%. The top line fell year over year, while the bottom line came in line with the prior-year quarter’s figure.

MAT’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 41.2%.

Trend in the Estimate Revision of MAT

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is pegged at $1.05, indicating a decline of 7.9% from $1.14 reported in the year-ago quarter.

For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at nearly $1.81 billion. The metric suggests a fall of 1.9% from the year-ago quarter’s figure.

Let’s take a look at how things have shaped up in the quarter.

Factors Likely to Shape Mattel’s Q3 2025 Results

Mattel’s third-quarter performance is likely to have been hurt by several challenges due to the global trade dynamics, timing shift in retailer ordering patterns and ongoing uncertainty around tariff conditions — all of which could limit upside potential. Additionally, softness in the Infant and Toddler segment of the Fisher-Price brand — particularly due to planned product line exits in Baby Gear and Power Wheels — may have limited growth in the Preschool category.

For the third quarter, the company anticipates improved revenue performance in the second half of the year and remains confident in the strength of its brand portfolio and its ability to navigate a dynamic operating environment. But Mattel has adopted a more cautious outlook and revised its full-year net sales guidance to growth range of 1% to 3% in constant currency — reflecting a wider range from the previous estimate of 2% to 3%. This adjustment reflects increased uncertainty driven by market volatility, potential regulatory changes and broader macroeconomic headwinds.

However, the company is likely to have benefited from early momentum, driven by strong franchise and licensing partnerships, robust e-commerce and omnichannel sales, and continued brand strength across action figures, vehicles and games. Additionally, strategic initiatives, including the collaboration with OpenAI, the establishment of Mattel Studios and ongoing operational excellence, likely contributed to MAT’s performance during the quarter.

Growth in key brands like Hot Wheels and UNO may have driven incremental shelf presence and consumer engagement, but revenues are still likely to face pressure. Meanwhile, the Girls category faced challenges in the prior quarter; it is expected to rebound through upcoming product innovations, strategic partnerships and brand activations planned for later this year. The company is advancing its entertainment strategy with Mattel Studios, uniting its film and television divisions to produce high-quality content based on its iconic brands.

What Our Model Says About MAT Stock

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Mattel this time. A stock needs to have a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) to beat earnings. However, that is not the case here.

Earnings ESP for MAT: Mattel has an Earnings ESP of -0.19%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Mattel’s Zacks Rank: The company has a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

Stocks Poised to Beat on Earnings

Here are some stocks from the Zacks Consumer Discretionary sector that investors may consider, as our model indicates they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat.

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. NCLH has an Earnings ESP of +0.06% and a Zacks Rank of 1 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Norwegian Cruise Line is expected to register a 17.2% increase in earnings for the to-be-reported quarter. Norwegian Cruise Line reported better-than-expected earnings in two of the trailing four quarters and missed on two occasions, the average surprise being 29.1%.

Boyd Gaming Corporation BYD currently has an Earnings ESP of +4.25% and a Zacks Rank of 2.

Boyd Gaming’s earnings for the to-be-reported quarter are expected to increase 1.3%. Boyd Gaming reported better-than-expected earnings in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 9.1%.

PENN Entertainment, Inc. PENN currently has an Earnings ESP of +89.87% and a Zacks Rank of 2.

PENN Entertainment’s earnings for the to-be-reported quarter are expected to increase 58.3%. PENN reported better-than-expected earnings in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on one occasion, the average surprise being 92.7%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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