How Will Ozempic and Wegovy Sales Aid NVO's Upcoming Q3 Results?

Novo Nordisk NVO is a dominant player in the cardiometabolic space, mainly due to the encouraging uptake of its blockbuster semaglutide-based (GLP-1) drugs — Ozempic (for type II diabetes [T2D]) and Wegovy (for obesity). Together, the drugs generated DKK 101.41 billion in the first half of 2025, representing about 65% of NVO’s total sales. Investors will be most keen to know the sales numbers of these two drugs when Novo Nordisk reports third-quarter results on Nov. 5, before the opening bell.

Since their initial launch, Novo Nordisk has secured several label expansions for both Ozempic and Wegovy to expand patient access and drive up demand. Wegovy is now approved for reducing major cardiovascular events, easing HFpEF symptoms, and relieving osteoarthritis-related knee pain in obesity. The FDA is also reviewing Novo Nordisk’s application for a 25 mg oral semaglutide (Wegovy pill) for obesity and cardiovascular disease, with a decision expected by year-end. Ozempic is also the only GLP-1 therapy approved to reduce kidney disease progression and cardiovascular death in patients with T2D and chronic kidney disease. NVO is also pursuing a label expansion of Ozempic in treating peripheral artery disease in the United States and the EU.

However, given Novo Nordisk’s July guidance cut and the ongoing headwinds in its GLP-1 franchise, sales of Ozempic and Wegovy are expected to have remained under pressure in the third quarter of 2025. The company continues to face slower-than-expected U.S. momentum for both drugs, as unregulated compounded semaglutide products persist in the market despite regulatory crackdowns. Although sales of Ozempic and Wegovy are likely to have posted year-over-year growth, the pace of the growth has probably slowed. This is mainly due to Wegovy’s uptake remaining below expectations amid limited market expansion and rising competition, while Ozempic’s momentum moderated due to intensified rivalry in the U.S. diabetes market.

Beyond Wegovy and Ozempic, Novo Nordisk’s oral semaglutide therapy Rybelsus for T2D, together with its insulin franchise and Rare Disease portfolio, is likely to have provided additional support to overall revenues during the period.

NVO’s Peers in the Obesity Space

Eli Lilly LLY is Novo Nordisk’s fierce competitor in the diabetes/obesity space, which markets its tirzepatide-based drugs, Mounjaro (T2D) and Zepbound (obesity). Despite being on the market for less than three years, Mounjaro and Zepbound have become LLY’s key top-line drivers. In the first half of 2025, the drugs generated combined sales of $14.7 billion, accounting for 52% of Eli Lilly’s total revenues. LLY’s Mounjaro and Zepbound follow a dual mechanism of action as a GIP and GLP-1 RA.

Lilly is expected to deliver another strong quarter when it reports financial results on Oct. 30, driven by robust demand for its blockbuster GLP-1 drugs, improved supply, deeper U.S. market penetration and expanding international launches. Beyond its cardiometabolic portfolio, Lilly’s oncology and immunology drugs — including Verzenio, Taltz, and newer launches like Omvoh, Ebglyss and Jaypirca — are also expected to have supported steady top-line expansion in the third quarter.

Several other companies, like Viking Therapeutics VKTX, are also making rapid progress in the development of GLP-1-based candidates in their clinical pipeline. Viking Therapeutics’ dual GIPR/GLP-1 RA, VK2735, is being developed both as oral and subcutaneous formulations for the treatment of obesity. In August 2025, VKTX announced mixed top-line results from a mid-stage study evaluating the safety and efficacy of the oral formulation of VK2735, which caused the stock to drop significantly. Phase III obesity studies with the subcutaneous formulation of VK2735 are currently underway.

NVO Stock’s Price, Valuation & Estimates

Year to date, Novo Nordisk shares have lost 37.9% against the industry’s 5.3% growth. The company has also underperformed the sector and the S&P 500 during the same time frame, as seen in the chart below.

NVO Stock Underperforms the Industry, Sector & the S&P 500

Novo Nordisk is trading at a discount to the industry, as seen in the chart below. Going by the price/earnings ratio, the company’s shares currently trade at 13.96 forward earnings, which is lower than 15.54 for the industry. The stock is trading much below its five-year mean of 29.25.

NVO Stock Valuation

Earnings estimates for 2025 have deteriorated from $3.83 to $3.66 per share over the past 60 days. During the same time frame, Novo Nordisk’s 2026 earnings per share estimates have declined from $3.94 to $3.91.

NVO Estimate Movement

Novo Nordisk currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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