Is a Beat in the Cards for Prudential Financial This Earnings Season?

Prudential Financial Inc. PRU is expected to register an improvement in its top line but a decline in its bottom line when it reports third-quarter 2025 results on Oct. 29, after the closing bell.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PRU’s third-quarter revenues is pegged at $13.98 billion, indicating a 28.2% drop from the year-ago reported figure. The consensus estimate for the bottom line is pegged at $3.60 per share. The estimate suggests a year-over-year increase of 3.4%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PRU’s third-quarter earnings has moved north by 0.8% in the past 30 days.

What the Zacks Model Unveils for PRU

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Prudential Financial this time. This is because the stock has the right combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold), which increases the chances of an earnings beat.

Earnings ESP: PRU has an Earnings ESP of +0.52%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate of $3.61 is pegged higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.60. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Prudential Financial, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Prudential Financial, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Prudential Financial, Inc. Quote

Zacks Rank: PRU carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

Factors Likely to Shape PRU’s Q3 Results

The U.S. business is expected to have benefited from more favorable underwriting results from Individual Life, Group Insurance and Institutional Retirement Strategies. The upside is likely to have been offset by lower fee income from the runoff of the legacy traditional variable annuity block. 

Prudential Financial’s international businesses are likely to have benefited from higher underwriting results and net investment spread results. Higher expenses are likely to have offset the upside.

Lower net investment activity results are expected to have affected the Closed Block Division.

The Individual Retirement Strategies business is likely to have benefited from higher net investment income due to growth in indexed variable and fixed annuities, and higher income from non-coupon investments. The upside is likely to have been partially offset by lower asset management and service fees, as well as lower policy charges and fee income.
 
The company expects earnings in PGIM to be boosted by solid asset management fee growth.

Assets under management are likely to have benefited from the market appreciation, positive net flows and strong investment performance.

Net investment income is likely to have gained from growth in indexed variable annuities and higher income from non-coupon investments, higher reinvestment rates, and growth in both variable and investment products. We expect net investment income to increase 0.7% to $4.5 billion in the to-be-reported quarter.

Expenses are likely to have risen because of higher policyholders’ benefits and amortization of deferred policy acquisition costs. We expect total expenses to be $12.5 billion. 

Continued share buybacks are likely to have added to the bottom line.

Stocks to Consider

Here are three insurance stocks you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat:

The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. THG has an Earnings ESP of +2.51% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $3.79 per share, indicating a year-over-year increase of 24.2%. 

THG’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four quarters.

The Allstate Corporation ALL has an Earnings ESP of +9.80% and carries a Zacks Rank of 2 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2025 earnings is $6.73 per share, representing a 72.1% increase from the year-ago reported figure.

ALL’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four quarters.

Kemper Corporation KMPR has an Earnings ESP of +5.66% and carries a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $1.33 cents per share, implying a decrease of 17.9% from the year-ago reported figure.

KMPR’s earnings beat estimates in three of the last four quarters while missing in one.

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research