Carvana Gears Up to Report Q3 Earnings: Here's What to Expect

Carvana Co. CVNA is slated to release third-quarter 2025 results on Oct. 29, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings per share (EPS) and revenues is pegged at $1.33 and $5.05 billion, respectively.

For the third quarter, the consensus estimate for Carvana’s earnings has moved up 3 cents in the past seven days. Its bottom-line estimates imply 107.8% growth from the year-ago reported numbers. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CVNA's quarterly revenues implies year-over-year growth of 38.2%. The company's earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 107.32%. This is depicted in the graph below:

Carvana Co. Price and EPS Surprise

Carvana Co. price-eps-surprise | Carvana Co. Quote

Q2 Highlights

In the second quarter of 2025, CVNA’s adjusted EPS of $1.28 beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.10 and increased from the year-ago quarter’s earnings of 14 cents. The company reported net sales of $4.84 billion, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.59 billion. The top line also rose 42% year over year.

Things to Note

In the second quarter of 2025, Carvana’s retail unit sales continued to grow on strong demand. Carvana projected a sequential increase in retail unit sales in the third quarter of 2025. The expected increase in retail unit sales is likely to have boosted the company’s top-line growth in the quarter under review. For the third quarter of 2025, we projected retail unit sales of 145,112 vehicles, suggesting a growth of 33.6% year over year.

The acquisition of ADESA's U.S. operations has strengthened Carvana’s logistics network, auction capabilities and reconditioning infrastructure. The company is also expanding ADESA Clear, its digital auction platform, across more ADESA and Carvana locations. This integration combines ADESA’s wholesale expertise with Carvana’s technology to streamline the buying and selling experience. Collectively, these efforts are driving higher throughput, lower costs and improved profitability.

Carvana recorded adjusted EBITDA of $601 million in the second quarter, up 70% year over year, with industry-leading margins of 12.4%. It continues to focus on enhancing operational efficiency across the business to drive adjusted EBITDA. For the full year, it forecasts adjusted EBITDA in the band of $2-$2.2 billion compared with $1.38 billion recorded last year. The acquisition of ADESA's U.S. operations and expected increase in adjusted EBITDA for the full year 2025 are likely to have improved the company’s margin in the to-be-reported quarter.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Carvana for the quarter to be reported, as it has the right combination of the two key ingredients. A positive Earnings ESP, combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold), increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is the case here.

Earnings ESP: CVNA has an Earnings ESP of +6.55%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate is pegged higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: It currently carries a Zacks Rank #2.

Other Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are some other players from the auto space that, per our model, have the correct ingredients to post an earnings beat this time around.

Aptiv PLC APTV has an Earnings ESP of +4.83% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. The company is set to release third-quarter 2025 results on Oct. 30. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for APTV’s to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at $1.81 per share and $5.06 billion, respectively. Aptiv beat earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 10.29%.

Lucid Group, Inc. LCID has an Earnings ESP of +0.72% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The company is set to release third-quarter 2025 results on Nov. 5. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for LCID’s to-be-reported quarter’s loss per share and revenues is pegged at $2.32 per share and $325.6 million, respectively. Lucid beat earnings estimates in one of the trailing four quarters and missed thrice, the average negative surprise being 11.09%.

American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. AXL has an Earnings ESP of +5.00% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The company is scheduled to release third-quarter 2025 results on Nov. 7. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AXL’s to-be-reported quarter’s earnings per share and revenues is pegged at 13 cents per share and $1.50 billion, respectively. American Axle beat earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average negative surprise being 584.14%.

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research