By a 10-2 vote, the Federal Reserve just cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point for the second consecutive meeting this year, bringing its benchmark rate down to a range of 3.75%–4.00% (per CNBC). The decision, though taken amid limited economic data due to the ongoing government shutdown, reflects the central bank’s intention to bolster economic growth and strengthen the labor market.
The Fed also announced that it will halt the reduction of its asset purchases effective December 1 (per CNBC TV18), putting an end to the balance sheet runoff that began earlier this year.Meanwhile, Fed Chair Powell raises doubts about a further cut at the next meeting in December, per CNBC.
At the same time, hopes of easing U.S.–China trade tensions have lifted investor sentiment. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping also concluded a meeting in Busan, South Korea. The two sides apparently reached an understanding to pause new trade tensions, including China’s rare-earth licensing regime, and to resume U.S. agricultural imports such as soybeans.
These developments have set the stage for a likely rebound in risk assets and high-growth sectors that tend to outperform in low-rate and tension-free environments.
Below we highlight a few ETF areas that are likely to outperform ahead.
Technology
Lower borrowing costs and a thaw in prolonged tariff tensions could boost the momentum in the technology sector, particularly among semiconductor and AI-driven companies. With rate cuts making financing cheaper and easing pressure on valuations, chip ETFs like VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) and Strive U.S. Semiconductor ETF (SHOC) should scale higher. If U.S.-China trade tensions recede, NVIDIA should receive a much-awaited respite (read: Should You Buy NVIDIA as It Nears $5T Market Cap? ETFs in Focus).
Growth Stocks
Growth stocks typically outperform in a falling-rate environment as future earnings become more valuable when discounted at lower interest rates. Investors seeking diversified exposure to high-growth companies may consider the ETFs like Invesco QQQ Trust QQQ and Vanguard Growth ETF VUG. These ETFs may surge amid the possibility of an extended equity rally.
Emerging Markets
An improving U.S.–China relationship bodes well for the emerging markets. Moreover, a Fed rate cut is good news for the emerging markets segment as the move would bolster the demand for higher-yielding EM assets. The likelihood of a subdued U.S. dollar is another positive. iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF EEM should be in a sweet spot in this context.
Small Caps
Smaller U.S. companies tend to benefit from lower rates and increased consumer confidence. U.S. small-cap growth stocks that could gain momentum as economic momentum improves. iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF IWO is an example of such an ETF.
High-Dividend
High-dividend ETFs can be a good investment, as they provide a steady source of income regardless of market conditions. These types of stocks and ETFs typically pay out a higher percentage of their profits as dividends than other stocks, implying that they can make up for capital losses, if there are any. If bond yields fall, higher-yielding assets should be lucrative. Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF VYM should be tracked closely.
What Lies Ahead?
Powell indicated that a growing number of the 19 Fed officials are now in favor of holding off another cut in the next cycle. Following his comments, traders cut the probability of a December rate cut to 67% from 90% the previous day, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, as quoted on CNBC.
However, we do not expect any pause for at least one policy cycle to disrupt the ongoing AI-fueled market momentum. This is especially true given the increased chance of a U.S.-China trade resolution.
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Invesco QQQ (QQQ): ETF Research Reports iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM): ETF Research Reports iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF (IWO): ETF Research Reports Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (VYM): ETF Research Reports Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG): ETF Research ReportsThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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