Does a Weak Jobs Market Mean the US Economy is in Recession?

According to our Chief Equity Strategist and Economist, John Blank, The worst parts of the U.S. unemployment situation in the fall of 2025 include: The rise in long-term unemployment, A stalling job market with slowing hiring, and Disproportionate impacts, on specific demographics and industries. We’re going to dig into this now with John.

1. You’ve written that, while the headline unemployment rate remains low, these underlying trends signal a weakening in the U.S. economy. Is the rise in long-term unemployment the key concern here?

2. The slowdown in U.S. job growth has to be near the top of the list of concerns also correct?

3. But the economic impact is only on specific groups. Which are they?

4. What are contributing factors to this difficult U.S. labor market?

5. According to the Federal Reserve, the labor market is in a "low-hiring, low-firing" environment. What does that actually mean?

6. How does this stack up globally?

7. What comes next in this particular story for 2026?

8. Overall, as uncertainty on the economy remains elevated, what’s your U.S. economic outlook for the New Year, especially when it comes to recession odds?

9. You are keeping an eye on a wide range of large cap stocks. One from Canada, one from the U.S., and one that is basically a Mainland China multinational, domiciled in Ireland. They include Royal Bank of Canada RY, Lam Research LRCX and PDD Holdings ADR PDD.

Our Chief Equity Strategist & Economist, John Blank, on the U.S. employment situation and an economic look ahead. With John, I’m Terry Ruffolo. 

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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