Will Higher Costs Spoil Global Payments' Q3 Earnings? Key Insights

Global Payments Inc. GPN is set to report third-quarter 2025 results on Nov. 4, 2025, before the opening bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings is currently pegged at $3.23 per share on revenues of $2.41 billion. 

The third-quarter earnings estimate remained stable over the past 60 days. The bottom-line projection indicates a year-over-year increase of 4.9%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues implies year-over-year growth of 2.1%.

For full-year 2025, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Global Payments’ revenues is pegged at $9.31 billion, implying a rise of 1.7% year over year. The consensus mark for the current year EPS is pegged at $12.18, implying a jump of around 5.5% on a year-over-year basis.

Global Payments’ earnings beat the consensus estimate in two of the last four quarters and missed twice, with an average surprise of 1.5%. This is depicted in the figure below.

Global Payments Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Global Payments Inc. price-eps-surprise | Global Payments Inc. Quote

Q3 Earnings Whispers for GPN

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for the company this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, but that is not the case here.

GPN has an Earnings ESP of -0.90% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

What’s Likely to Shape GPN’s Q3 Results?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for adjusted revenues from Merchant Solutions indicates a 1.5% increase from the year-ago period’s reported number of $1.8 billion. The consensus mark for adjusted operating income indicates 3.8% growth from the year-ago level of $921.5 million, while our model estimate implies a 3.1% increase.

Both the consensus estimate and our model estimate for Issuer Solutions’ adjusted revenues signal around 4% increase from the year-ago figure of $529 million. While the consensus estimate for adjusted operating income from the unit indicates a rise of 7.2% in the third quarter from $240.4 million a year ago, our model estimate implies an 8.7% increase.

The above-mentioned estimates indicate that GPN is positioned for year-over-year growth. However, profit growth from the businesses is likely to have been partially offset by increased costs under certain heads in the quarter under review. For the to-be-reported quarter, we anticipate the adjusted cost of service to rise 3.3% year over year. We expect adjusted total operating costs to be above $1.3 billion in the quarter. Continuous investments to upgrade digital capabilities are likely to have increased expenditures.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues from Europe operations indicates a 31% year-over-year decrease in the third quarter. The consensus mark for revenues from the Americas operations indicates around a 20% fall from a year ago. But the consensus estimate for revenuesfromAsia Pacific indicates 2.5% year-over-year growth.

How Did Other Stocks Perform?

Here are some companies in the broader payments space that have already reported earnings for this quarter: The Western Union Company WU, Mastercard Incorporated MA and Visa Inc. V.

Western Union reported third-quarter 2025 adjusted EPS of 47 cents, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 9.3%. The bottom line grew 2.2% year over year. The results benefited from a declining expense level and strong performance of the Consumer Services segment. Western Union’s Branded Digital business witnessed continued growth in transactions.

Mastercard reported third-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of $4.38 per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.6%. The bottom line advanced 13% year over year. The results benefited from strong cross-border volume growth, increased switched transactions and robust demand for value-added services like digital authentication and customer engagement. However, the upside was partly offset by Mastercard’s higher payment network rebates from renewed deals and an escalating operating expense level.  

Visa reported fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 EPS of $2.98, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.97. The bottom line increased 10% year over year. The results benefited from higher processed transactions, payment and cross-border volumes. However, the upside was partly offset by Visa’s increased operating expenses.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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