A month has gone by since the last earnings report for TopBuild (BLD). Shares have added about 10.9% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
But investors have to be wondering, will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is TopBuild due for a pullback? Well, first let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent drivers for TopBuild Corp. before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.
TopBuild Q3 Earnings & Sales Top Expectations, ‘25 Outlook Raised
TopBuild reported better-than-expected third-quarter 2025 results, with earnings and net sales topping the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Year over year, the top line grew while the bottom line tumbled.
The company raised its full-year outlook following the integration of recent acquisitions.
Earnings & Revenue Discussion
The quarter’s adjusted earnings of $5.36 per share topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.22 by 2.7% but decreased 5.6% from $5.68 reported a year ago.
Net sales of $1.39 billion were slightly above the consensus mark of $1.38 billion by 0.6%, and grew 1.5% year over year. Acquisitions contributed meaningfully, offsetting volume declines tied to soft residential new construction demand. Volume fell 6.7%, while M&A added 7.9%.
Segment Performance
Installation Services: Sales increased 0.2% to $858.3 million. Adjusted operating margin contracted 60 bps to 19.5%, while adjusted EBITDA margin improved 20 bps to 22.5%.
Specialty Distribution: Sales rose 1.4% to $608.9 million. Adjusted operating margin declined 140 bps to 14.4%, and adjusted EBITDA margin fell to 16.9% from 18.4%.
Margin Performance
Gross profit was $418.9 million, down from $421.8 million a year ago. The gross margin contracted 60 bps to 30.1%, reflecting mix pressure and higher SG&A.
Adjusted operating profit fell 6.9% to $228.9 million, with the adjusted operating margin dropping 150 bps to 16.4%.
Adjusted EBITDA of $275.6 million declined 3.3% year over year, with the adjusted EBITDA margin slipping to 19.8% from 20.8%.
Balance Sheet & Share Repurchases
TopBuild ended Q3 with cash and cash equivalents of $1.14 billion, sharply up from $400.3 million at 2024-end. Total liquidity reached $2.08 billion.
Long-term debt increased to $2.80 billion, reflecting acquisition financing.
The company repurchased 177,983 shares for $65.5 million in Q3 and 1.33 million shares YTD for $417.1 million, leaving $770.9 million under the current authorization.
2025 Outlook Raised
TopBuild now expects net sales between $5.35 billion and $5.45 billion (from $5.15–$5.35 billion). This compares with last year’s reported value of $5.33 billion.
Adjusted EBITDA is still projected to be between $1.01 billion and $1.06 billion (from $970 million-$1.07 billion). This compares with the reported value of $725.8 million in 2024.
The revised outlook considers the contribution from the recent acquisitions, including Insulation Fabrics, SPI, Diamond Door Products, Performance Insulation Fabricators and L&L Insulation.
Residential sales are expected to decline at a low double-digit rate (from a decline in the high-single digits), while Commercial/Industrial sales are expected to be flattish (from growing in the low-single digits).
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates.
VGM Scores
At this time, TopBuild has a average Growth Score of C, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a D. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock has a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Interestingly, TopBuild has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
TopBuild belongs to the Zacks Building Products - Miscellaneous industry. Another stock from the same industry, Masco (MAS), has gained 1.9% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended September 2025.
Masco reported revenues of $1.92 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -3.3%. EPS of $0.97 for the same period compares with $1.08 a year ago.
Masco is expected to post earnings of $0.78 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -12.4%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -1.4%.
Masco has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of C.
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TopBuild Corp. (BLD): Free Stock Analysis Report Masco Corporation (MAS): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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