Pool Corporation (POOL): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Pool Corporation on StockOpine’s Newsletter’s Substack by StockOpine. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on POOL. Pool Corporation's share was trading at $243.37 as of December 1st. POOL’s trailing and forward P/E were 22.19 and 20.75 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Pool Corporation (POOL) reported Q3 2025 results that reinforced the stabilization trend observed in Q2, suggesting the company is successfully managing through the cyclical downturn in discretionary pool spending. Despite persistent macro headwinds from high interest rates dampening big-ticket purchases, the non-discretionary maintenance segment provided steady support, helping the company deliver another solid quarter.

The most notable development was the first year-over-year increase in building materials revenue since Q3 2022, signaling potential recovery in remodel and new pool activity. This improvement, alongside a 50-basis-point expansion in gross margins and reaffirmed full-year EPS guidance, underscores that POOL may be approaching the trough of its current cycle.

Net sales rose 1% year-over-year to $1.5 billion, mirroring last quarter’s growth. The increase was primarily driven by a resilient maintenance segment contributing +1% and favorable pricing adding +2%, offset by a -2% drag from discretionary new pool and remodel demand. The consistent discretionary headwind suggests that the segment’s decline has now stabilized. Gross margin expanded to 29.6%, driven by pricing discipline, supply chain efficiencies, and growth in higher-margin private label products, which collectively outweighed headwinds from mix shifts and softer discretionary sales.

Notably, margins remain above pre-pandemic levels despite chemical price deflation and construction softness, demonstrating strong pricing power and operational agility. As chemical deflation eases and discretionary demand recovers, POOL is positioned for further margin expansion toward 30%. Overall, Q3 results indicate steady execution, emerging signs of cyclical recovery, and continued confidence in management’s guidance.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Pool Corporation (POOL) by Douglas Ott in May 2025, which highlighted the company’s post-pandemic slowdown, macro-driven challenges, and resilience in its non-discretionary maintenance segment as a stabilizing force. The company’s stock price has depreciated approximately by 16.46% since our coverage. This is because the thesis hasn't played out yet. StockOpine shares a similar view but emphasizes stabilization and early recovery trends visible in Q3 2025 results.

Pool Corporation is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 44 hedge fund portfolios held POOL at the end of the second quarter which was 39 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of POOL as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.