Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Super Micro Computer, Inc. on Deep Value Returns’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on SMCI. Super Micro Computer, Inc.'s share was trading at $33.41 as of December 1st. SMCI’s trailing and forward P/E were 26.65 and 17.92 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

SuperMicro (SMCI) recently preannounced its earnings, once again falling short of its own guidance — a recurring issue for the management team known for overpromising and underdelivering. Despite this, the company reaffirmed its full-year guidance, which carries limited weight as many investors, including the author, view management’s projections skeptically and instead apply more conservative growth assumptions.

The shortfall primarily reflects timing issues, with revenue initially expected this quarter now likely to be recognized in the next. The market, well aware of this pattern, has largely priced in the company’s credibility gap. The key focus now shifts to whether SuperMicro can finally demonstrate sustained acceleration in growth from here.

Fundamentally, the long-term picture remains compelling. Excluding near-term noise, the company trades at approximately 17x forward free cash flow while growing around 30% year over year, presenting a strong value opportunity relative to peers. This combination of robust growth and discounted valuation supports the view that the stock remains undervalued even amid recurring execution hiccups.

While management’s repeated misses have eroded trust, the underlying business performance and secular tailwinds in high-performance computing and AI infrastructure continue to justify optimism. Accordingly, the author maintains a $60 price target for SuperMicro by summer 2026, reflecting confidence in the company’s ability to compound earnings once operational consistency improves. The latest quarter’s missteps are seen as temporary rather than structural, leaving the long-term investment case intact.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) by Taylor Nichols in March 2025, which highlighted SMCI’s leadership in AI infrastructure and rapid growth through innovation in liquid cooling and modular server design. The company’s stock has depreciated approximately by 2.48% since our coverage. The thesis still stands. Deep Value Returns shares a similar view but emphasizes valuation resilience and free cash flow strength.

Super Micro Computer, Inc. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 48 hedge fund portfolios held SMCI at the end of the second quarter which was 40 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of SMCI as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.