Tempus AI: Data Flywheel and MRD Expansion Reshape the Outlook

Tempus AI TEM is leaning into a dual-engine model: a fast-growing Genomics franchise and a scaling data business powered by an expanding AI toolkit. The third quarter of 2025 marked a turn to non-GAAP profitability, signaling operating momentum as revenue scales.

The mix skews to North America and remains anchored by oncology testing, hereditary screening and an emerging minimal residual disease (MRD) offering, with data contracts layering on multi-year monetization.

Why the Platform Matters Now

Tempus AI aggregates multimodal clinical and lab data and commercializes it in two lines: Genomics and Data and services (Insights platform). The Genomics portfolio supports therapy selection and disease monitoring via DNA-based xT, liquid biopsy xF, RNA-based xR, and other pathology assays. MRD is delivered through the personalized xM test, while care coordination and AI-enabled monitoring expand utility at the point of care. Insights monetizes de-identified datasets, trial services, and analytics for life-sciences partners. Together, the toolkit links testing to decision support, trial enrollment and real-world evidence creation across oncology and broader diagnostics.

Evidence of Operating Leverage

Management hit a key milestone by becoming profitable on a non-GAAP basis in the third quarter, helped by disciplined MRD expansion and cost control. The EPS history and estimate visuals show a steady trajectory toward smaller losses into 2026, consistent with leverage from scale and mix improvement as revenues ramp.

Regulatory and Payment Milestones to Monitor

Tempus AI is pursuing Advanced Diagnostic Laboratory Test (ADLT) migrations across parts of the menu, a pathway that can reset pricing and support reimbursement uplift. Average reimbursement today trails peers, and timing depends on multi-step regulatory processes. Execution on ADLT transitions, coupled with payer coverage expansion, stands out as a near-term swing factor for revenue quality and margin visibility.

Tempus AI, Inc. Price and Consensus

Tempus AI, Inc. price-consensus-chart | Tempus AI, Inc. Quote

Data Licensing as a Second Growth Engine

Data and services include de-identified data licensing under the Insights platform, clinical-trial matching, site-network services and contract research operations. These offerings diversify revenue beyond test volumes and deepen enterprise relationships with pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies from research through commercialization. In 2024, Genomics contributed roughly 65% of revenue and Data and services 35%, underscoring the rising importance of data licensing as a second engine alongside testing.

What the Indicator Implies for Timing

The stock carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) with Style Score of Value F, Growth C, Momentum B and VGM D, signaling a balanced risk setup while estimate trends improve. Sales and EPS charts point to continued top-line acceleration and narrowing losses through 2026, an improving backdrop that can support selective accumulation on weakness while awaiting clearer reimbursement catalysts.

Key Metrics to Track Next

Growth hinges on MRD volumes as xM adoption widens and new use cases emerge, lifting mix and recurring revenue.

Recent beats include a 31.3% EPS surprise and a 2.4% sales surprise, useful context for near-term set-up into the next print.

Context from Peers

Illumina ILMN remains a bellwether in genomic tools and clinical applications, with broad exposure to oncology testing demand and data-driven workflows. Guardant Health GH is advancing liquid biopsy and MRD solutions that highlight the category’s growth potential and reimbursement pathfinding. Both peers provide useful read-throughs on oncology testing trends, pricing dynamics, and clinical adoption curves relevant to Tempus AI's’ runway.

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