CBRL to Post Q1 Earnings: What's in the Cards for the Stock?

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. CBRL is scheduled to report first-quarter fiscal 2026 results on Dec. 9, 2025.

CBRL’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on one occasion, the average surprise being 71.3%.

Trend in the Estimate Revision of CBRL

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fiscal first-quarter bottom line is pegged at a loss of 68 cents per share. In the prior-year quarter, the company reported an earnings per share (EPS) of 45 cents.

For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at $801.1 million. The projection indicates a 5.2% fall from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. Quote

Let us take a look at how things might have shaped up in the quarter to be reported.

Factors Likely to Shape CBRL’s Quarterly Results

Cracker Barrel’s fiscal first quarter is likely to have been weighed down by a pronounced deterioration in guest traffic following the company’s mid-August brand refresh. Management indicated that the logo change prompted a swift shift in consumer sentiment, driving an expected 7%-8% decline in quarterly traffic and reversing the prior period’s stable trends. The broad-based nature of the pullback — spanning regions and demographic cohorts — is likely to have pressured same-store sales in the fiscal first quarter. Our model predicts fiscal first-quarter comps to decline 4.5% year over year.

Despite ongoing menu upgrades and efforts to enhance food quality, the company’s planned 4%-5% pricing actions for fiscal 2026 may have created additional friction amid softer sentiment. With competitors intensifying value-oriented promotions and discretionary spending remaining cautious, Cracker Barrel’s pricing strategy likely provided a limited offset to the traffic decline in the to-be-reported quarter. Retail performance may also have been constrained, as tariff-driven assortment adjustments and SKU reductions reduced category breadth and pressured sell-through. Our model predicts retail revenues to fall 4.6% year over year to $154.1 million.

Operating expenses are expected to have been a drag on quarterly profitability. Management previously outlined roughly $16 million in incremental fiscal first quarter costs tied to stepped-up marketing efforts, the biennial general managers’ conference and elevated training investments. Combined with weaker restaurant-level volumes and traffic flow-through rates that can approach 30%-45%, these expense burdens likely compressed margins and negatively impacted the bottom line in the to-be-reported quarter. Our model predicts costs of goods sold in the fiscal first quarter to rise 2.1% year over year to $264.3 million.

While promotional efforts and loyalty program engagement may have offered pockets of stabilization late in the quarter, these initiatives are unlikely to offset the broader traffic and cost pressures. Our model predicts fiscal first-quarter adjusted EBITDA to fall 47.7% year over year to $24 million.

What Our Model Says About CBRL Stock

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Cracker Barrel this time. A stock needs to have a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) to beat earnings. However, that is not the case here.

Earnings ESP for CBRL: Cracker Barrel currently has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Cracker Barrel’s Zacks Rank: The company has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) at present.

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are a few stocks from the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector, which, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat.

El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. LOCO currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.33% and a Zacks Rank of 1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

In the to-be-reported quarter, El Pollo Loco’s earnings are expected to increase 10%. El Pollo Loco’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters, and missed on one occasion, the average surprise being 19.6%.

Restaurant Brands International Inc. QSR currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.87% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

In the to-be-reported quarter, Restaurant Brands’ earnings are expected to register a 16.1% year-over-year rise. Restaurant Brands’ earnings beat estimates in two out of the trailing four quarters, and missed twice, with an average miss of 0.35%.

Wingstop Inc. WING has an Earnings ESP of +1.74% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.

In the to-be-reported quarter, Wingstop’s earnings are expected to register a 2.3% year-over-year decline. Wingstop’s earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 13.4%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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