Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (KNSL): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. on The Dutch Investors’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on KNSL. Kinsale Capital Group, Inc.'s share was trading at $377.04 as of December 1st. KNSL’s trailing and forward P/E were 18.91 and 18.45 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Kinsale Capital Group (KNSL), headquartered in Richmond, Virginia, is a specialty insurer that focuses exclusively on the U.S. Excess and Surplus (E&S) market, a $115 billion segment designed for hard-to-insure, high-risk businesses. Unlike peers such as Markel, Kinsale has no investment or ventures arm and operates solely within the domestic E&S space. The company leverages its ability to freely set rates and policy terms—a regulatory flexibility unavailable to standard insurers—to achieve superior profitability.

By charging higher premiums and tightly managing exclusions, Kinsale maintains an exceptional loss ratio while operating with a modest policy retention rate of around 60%. Its portfolio includes unconventional and complex risks, from firearm retailers and medical malpractice cases to disaster-exposed properties and cybersecurity liabilities.

Operating in an increasingly competitive E&S market with over 75 rivals, including Berkshire Hathaway, AIG, Chubb, and Markel, Kinsale holds under 2% market share but continues to expand rapidly. Its competitive edge lies in a proprietary technology platform that took seven years to develop, allowing it to process large volumes of low-premium submissions with exceptional efficiency—881,000 new submissions and 64,000 accepted policies in a year with fewer than 660 employees.

Leadership by founder and CEO Michael Kehoe and COO Brian Haney reinforces disciplined underwriting and profitability-driven growth, supported by strong insider ownership and aligned incentives. With a fully integrated underwriting and claims process and unmatched cost structure, Kinsale has built a durable moat, positioning itself as the most efficient and profitable pure-play insurer in the U.S. E&S market.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (KNSL) by Felix in April 2025, which highlighted the company’s disciplined underwriting, strong combined ratio, and profitable growth in the E&S market. The company’s stock price has depreciated approximately by 13% since our coverage. This is because the thesis did not fully play out. The thesis still stands as The Dutch Investors shares a similar view but emphasizes Kinsale’s proprietary technology-driven moat and efficiency.

Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 31 hedge fund portfolios held KNSL at the end of the second quarter which was 33 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of KNSL as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.