MTN to Post Q1 Earnings: Modest Revenue Gains & Profit Pressure Ahead?

Vail Resorts, Inc. MTN is scheduled to report its first-quarter fiscal 2026 results on Dec. 10, after the closing bell.

In the last quarter, its adjusted earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 7%. Notably, MTN delivered better-than-expected earnings in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, with an average surprise of 3.3%.

Trend in Estimate Revision of MTN

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal first-quarter loss per share has remained stable at $5.23 over the past 30 days. In the prior-year quarter, the company reported adjusted loss per share of $4.61.

For net revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at $271.3 million, indicating a 4.2% rise from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure of $260.3 million. 

Let us take a look at how things might have shaped up in the quarter to be reported.

Factors Likely to Shape Vail Resorts’ Q1 Results

Several operational and financial tailwinds are likely to have aided Vail Resorts’ revenue performance in first-quarter fiscal 2026. Management highlighted expectations for normalized weather conditions in Australia, which had faced disruptions in the prior year. This alone is expected to have provided a meaningful lift to early-season revenues. The company also pointed to price increases across both season passes and lift tickets, which might have helped offset softer pass unit sales and contribute positively to lift revenues. 

Additionally, stronger ancillary capture, covering on-mountain spending such as dining, rentals and ski school, has been identified as another contributor to overall top-line growth, supported further by improved guest flow driven by early-season visitation.

Another important driver was the impact of MTN’s Resource Efficiency Transformation Plan, which, though aimed at cost efficiencies, also improves operational execution, indirectly supporting revenues by enhancing the guest experience. The company expects $38 million in incremental efficiencies, enabling reinvestment in marketing, digital enhancements and service improvements that can help strengthen visitation and spending.

Meanwhile, the introduction of products like Epic Friend Tickets, designed to stimulate lift ticket purchases and draw new guests, is likely to have created additional momentum for early-season lift revenues. Collectively, these factors might have provided a foundation for modest top-line growth despite expected declines in pass visitation due to lower pass unit sales.  

Owing to these tailwinds, our model predicts Mountain and Lodging net revenues for the to-be-reported quarter to grow year over year by 0.9% to $174.8 million and 10.9% to $96.4 million, respectively. 

Several elements appear to have weighed on the company’s bottom line heading into first-quarter fiscal 2026. Management noted that season-pass units were running about 3% lower, caused largely by fewer new buyers and weaker renewal rates among less-tenured guests, which is expected to have reduced skier visits and pressure revenues. The company also flagged ongoing cost inflation, particularly in labor and general operating expenses, which will offset gains from pricing actions and efficiency efforts. 

Additionally, while marketing is being overhauled, the shift toward new channels and brand-building will take time to influence demand, meaning near-term visitation may not fully benefit from these initiatives. Weather normalization in Australia is expected to have aided results, but not enough to counteract the reduced pass sales and inflationary headwinds that together are likely to limit profitability early in the fiscal year.

What the Zacks Model Unveils for MTN

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Vail Resorts this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. 

Vail Resorts has an Earnings ESP of +1.18% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) at present. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks Poised to Beat Earnings Estimates

Here are some stocks that investors may consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in the quarter to be reported.

Las Vegas Sands Corp. LVS has an Earnings ESP of +2.59% and a Zacks Rank #1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here. 

Shares of Las Vegas Sands have surged 22.2% in the past year. Las Vegas Sands’ earnings beat estimates in two of the trailing four quarters and missed twice, the average surprise being 14.5%. 

Corsair Gaming, Inc. CRSR has an Earnings ESP of +5.19% and a Zacks Rank #3. 

Shares of Corsair Gaming have declined 15% in the past year. Corsair Gaming’s earnings beat estimates in one quarter, missed twice and met once, the average surprise being 3.2%.

Travel + Leisure Co. TNL has an Earnings ESP of +1.48% and a Zacks Rank #3. 

Shares of Travel + Leisure have gained 26.4% in the past year. Travel + Leisure’s earnings beat estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, the average surprise being 1.4%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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