StoneCo Stock Up 64.3% in a Year: Buying Opportunity or Risky Timing?

Shares of StoneCo Ltd. STNE have surged an impressive 64.3% over the past year, leaving both the S&P 500 composite’s 16.3% rally and the Internet–Software industry’s modest 4.7% rise far behind. 

This surge has been fueled by strong execution in its financial services business and decisive strategic moves, including divesting non-core software operations. This allows StoneCo, the Brazilian fintech powerhouse,  to target more than 90% of its total addressable market, payments, banking and credit, estimated at BRL 100 billion in revenue opportunity. Crucially, its share in this vast market remains small, underscoring significant growth potential.

This impressive rally also puts StoneCo ahead of its peers, Arlo Technologies, Inc. ARLO and Reddit Inc. RDDT. Arlo Technologies has climbed 7.6%, whereas Reddit rose 51.9% in the past year. 

Price Performance

With such an impressive rally, investors are now wondering, is it now the right time to buy the stock or wait more? For that, let us take a closer look at StoneCo’s business fundamentals, tailwinds and valuation to find out whether it makes a compelling case or not.

StoneCo Sharpens Its Fintech Focus as Profitability Boosts

STNE’s results for the first nine months of 2025 highlight the company’s disciplined growth strategy. Adjusted net income jumped nearly 22% year over year. As of Sept. 30, 2025, return on equity (ROE) reached a robust 24%. The company’s financial services division led the charge, with ROE in that segment touching 33%. This growth came even as Brazil’s macro backdrop remained challenging, with high interest rates and signs of economic deceleration. 

The decision to divest the Linx business reflects a strategic shift toward sharpening StoneCo’s core fintech focus. The move unlocks capital that can be redeployed into high-return initiatives or returned to shareholders. The company has already executed BRL 2.8 billion in share repurchases over the past year — an indicator of strong confidence from management.

STNE Delivers Consistent Growth Across Segments

StoneCo’s MSMB (micro, small and medium business) payments segment continues to expand, with its active client base climbing 17.6% year over year to 4.7 million in the first nine months of 2025. Around 38% of these merchants now use three or more of the company’s solutions, boosting engagement and profitability. MSMB total payment volume grew 13.2% in the first nine months of 2025, fueled by rapid adoption of PIX QR Code transactions ( more than 64% year over year) and steady growth in card payments.

Meanwhile, the company’s banking ecosystem is gaining momentum. In the first nine months of 2025, active banking clients rose 21.8% to 3.5 million, while client deposits jumped 32%. Nearly 84% of these deposits are time-based, providing StoneCo with a stable, low-cost funding source that enhances margin resilience.

The credit business is also expanding prudently. In the first nine months of 2025, StoneCo’s credit portfolio surged 148.9% year over year to BRL 2.3 billion, supported by a 139.7% rally in merchant working capital loans. However, provisioning non-performing loan ratios rose amid macro caution.

Moreover, StoneCo’s balance sheet remains solid. It ended the third quarter 2025 with BRL 3.5 billion in net cash, even after significant buybacks. The company’s capital-light approach, growing deposit base and expanding credit operations suggest that profitability may further scale without heavy reinvestment.

StoneCo’s Earnings Estimates & Valuation Analysis

The estimate revisions also echo similar sentiments, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for both 2025 and 2026 earnings per share being revised north over the past 30 days.

Estimates Revision Trend

Despite its stellar run, STNE remains attractively priced. The STNE stock has a Value Score of A.

This is evident, as in terms of forward 12-month P/E, StoneCo shares currently trade at 7.46X, well off its three-year high of 31.33X and below its median of 10.48X. The stock is also trading significantly below the industry’s P/E ratio of 34.14X. The stock is also trading below Arlo Technologies’ 52.58X. Meanwhile, Reddit trades at 62.92X.

Price-to-Earnings F12M

Should You Buy STNE Stock Now?

StoneCo’s powerful rally reflects a fintech operator executing with clarity, discipline, and accelerating profitability. The company is reshaping itself into a more focused, higher-return platform, supported by rising client engagement, a fast-growing banking ecosystem, and prudent yet expanding credit operations. Its balance sheet strength and substantial share buybacks further underscore management’s confidence in long-term value creation.

Despite a significant price surge over the past year, STNE still trades at a clear valuation discount to both its historical averages and industry peers, while its earnings outlook continues to improve. For investors seeking a blend of value, growth potential and operational resilience in the Latin American fintech space, StoneCo remains an attractive opportunity.

STNE currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), and it still seems to be an opportune time for investors to capitalize on StoneCo’s momentum before the market fully prices in its upside potential. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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