NVIDIA or BigBear.ai: Which AI Stock Has Bigger Upside in 2026?

Riding the artificial intelligence (AI) wave, NVIDIA Corporation NVDA has seen its shares increase by 36.8% this year, while a smaller AI competitor, BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. BBAI, surged 48.5%. But does this suggest that BigBear.ai will continue to outperform NVIDIA next year, or is there more to consider? Let’s evaluate their growth potential. 

Reasons to Be Bullish on NVIDIA 

NVIDIA has forecasted that data center capital expenditures worldwide will reach $3 trillion to $4 trillion annually by 2030. If this occurs, it will create numerous opportunities for the Jensen Huang-led company to sell its popular computing hardware. In the short term, however, the Trump administration’s approval to ship H200 AI chips to “approved customers” in China is expected to boost NVIDIA’s sales. 

Unrelenting demand for NVIDIA’s cloud graphics processing units (GPUs) and cutting-edge Blackwell chips helped drive the company’s fiscal third-quarter 2026 revenues up 62% year over year and 22% sequentially to $57 billion, according to investor.nvidia.com. Both data center and gaming revenues grew for the quarter, and the company now expects fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 revenues to reach about $65 billion, plus or minus 2%.  

NVIDIA is positioned for growth thanks to its competitive moat in the AI hardware market, along with strong financial health, having returned $37 billion to its shareholders through cash dividends and share buybacks (see more: SoundHound Vs. NVIDIA: Which AI Stock Should You Buy Before 2026?).  

Reasons to Be Bullish on BigBear.ai 

The Trump administration’s initiatives to reduce federal spending did not bode well for BigBear.ai. The resulting funding cuts led to a 20% decline in third-quarter revenues, which totaled $33.1 million. The company also reported second-quarter revenues of $32.5 million, down 18% from the prior-year quarter. 

However, prospects are looking up for BigBear.ai’s revenue growth after a definitive deal to acquire Ask Sage for $250 million. Ask Sage is a rapidly expanding generative AI platform built for highly regulated sectors, including defense and national security. Currently, Ask Sage supports 100,000 users across 16,000 government teams. 

Kevin McAleenan, CEO of BigBear.ai, stated that “by integrating Ask Sage with BigBear.ai, we are creating what the market has been asking for: a secure, integrated AI platform that connects software, data, and mission services in one place,” citing ir.bigbear.ai. Relying on the Ask Sage acquisition to drive revenue growth, BigBear.ai maintains its full-year sales guidance between $125 million and $140 million. 

Furthermore, BigBear.ai’s strong cash position of $456.6 million as of Sept. 30, 2025, provides the necessary funding for scaling operations. A potential increase in government spending next year under Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” could further support revenue growth. 

Which AI Stock Has a Bigger Upside in 2026: NVIDIA or BigBear.ai? 

As the new year begins, it’s clear that NVIDIA is well-positioned for robust growth in the AI sector, fueled by high demand for its chips, a competitive edge, and solid financials. Similarly, BigBear.ai is set for growth, relying on its Ask Sage acquisition, strong financials, and the possibility of increased government spending. 

However, unlike NVIDIA, BigBear.ai’s upside may be limited due to its lack of profitability. The company reported a net income of $2.5 million for the third quarter, but this was due to non-cash adjustments, not higher sales. Brokers also estimate the average short-term price target for BBAI stock at $6.67, a slight decline of 0.6% from the last closing price of $6.71.

On the other hand, brokers are optimistic about NVIDIA’s future growth. They project the average short-term price target for NVDA stock at $252.67, reflecting a 36.6% increase from the last closing price of $184.97.

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At the moment, NVIDIA has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), while BigBear.ai has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks Rank #1 stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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