For most investors, how much a stock's price changes over time is important. Not only can it impact your investment portfolio, but it can also help you compare investment results across sectors and industries.
Another factor that can influence investors is FOMO, or the fear of missing out, especially with tech giants and popular consumer-facing stocks.
What if you'd invested in Murphy USA (MUSA) ten years ago? It may not have been easy to hold on to MUSA for all that time, but if you did, how much would your investment be worth today?
Murphy USA's Business In-Depth
With that in mind, let's take a look at Murphy USA's main business drivers.
Murphy USA Inc. is a leading independent retailer of motor fuel and convenience merchandise in the United States. The El Dorado, AR-based company, in its current form, came into existence following the 2013 spin-off of Murphy Oil Corporation’s downstream business into a separate, independent and publicly-traded entity.
Murphy USA markets refined products through a chain of retail stations, almost all of which are located near a Walmart supercenter, primarily in the Southeast, Southwest and Midwest United States.
As of Mar 31, 2025, the company had a total of 1,761 Company stores – under Murphy USA and Murphy Express brands – encompassing 27 states. Of the total, majority of the stores are branded Murphy USA, some are standalone Murphy Express locations, while the remaining are branded as QuickChek stores. Apart from the retail outlets, Murphy USA operates certain product distribution terminals and ethanol production plants.
The company, which caters to approximately 1.6 million customers daily, also owns a dedicated line space on the Colonial Pipeline - the largest refined products system in the country and the biggest gasoline mover.
Meanwhile, Murphy USA’s revenue was down 6.6% year over year to $4.5 billion in the first quarter of 2025, while the company’s income was $53.2 million (or $2.63 per diluted share), down 19.4% year over year. Operating cash flow reduced to $128.5 million in Q1 2025 from $136 million in the prior year period.
Murphy USA remains committed to returning excess cash to shareholders through continued share buyback programs. As part of this initiative, the fuel retailer repurchased $151.2 million in shares in the first quarter of 2025 at an average price of $470.80 per share.
Total retail gallons declined 1.9% to 1,131.2 million gallons for the first quarter of 2025 but same-store sales (SSS) volumes was down 3.2%. Murphy USA’s 2025 guidance includes up to 50 new stores and up to 30 raze-and-rebuilds, $855-$875 million in merchandise margin contribution, and $450-$500 million in capital expenditures.
Bottom Line
Putting together a successful investment portfolio takes a combination of research, patience, and a little bit of risk. For Murphy USA, if you bought shares a decade ago, you're likely feeling really good about your investment today.
A $1000 investment made in December 2015 would be worth $6,273.70, or a gain of 527.37%, as of December 15, 2025, according to our calculations. This return excludes dividends but includes price appreciation.
The S&P 500 rose 239.27% and the price of gold increased 289.52% over the same time frame in comparison.
Going forward, analysts are expecting more upside for MUSA.
Murphy USA benefits from a high-volume, low-cost business model, majority-owned sites and Walmart-adjacent locations that support strong fuel volumes and help keep operating expenses low. Its advantaged fuel sourcing network, disciplined cost controls, self-help initiatives and solid merchandise growth led by high-margin nicotine products bolster margins and cash flow. A balanced capital strategy, including a sizable buyback program and rising dividend, further supports shareholder value. However, a dividend yield below 1% offers limited appeal for income-focused investors, while softer fuel margins and volumes, exposure to fuel-margin cycles, competitive pricing dynamics, execution risk tied to aggressive store expansion and elevated leverage add near-term uncertainty. Due to these factors, the stock is currently Neutral.
The stock is up 13.98% over the past four weeks, and no earnings estimate has gone lower in the past two months, compared to 1 higher, for fiscal 2025. The consensus estimate has moved up as well.
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Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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