Can SERV's Rapid Fleet Expansion Drive a Step-Change in Revenue Growth?

Serve Robotics, Inc. SERV is entering a new phase of scale, with fleet expansion emerging as a central driver of its revenue trajectory. During the third quarter of 2025, the company surpassed 1,000 robots deployed, a milestone management described as an operational inflection point where utilization improves and efficiency gains begin to compound. Since then, Serve Robotics has delivered on its expansion plans, officially surpassing 2,000 deployed robots — creating the largest autonomous sidewalk delivery fleet in the United States.

Early benefits from fleet expansion are already translating into stronger revenue momentum. For the third quarter, SERV reported revenues of $687,000, up 210% year over year, driven primarily by increased fleet activity. Management highlighted that average daily operating hours per robot rose 12.5% sequentially, while intervention rates declined, signaling improving autonomy and better unit-level efficiency. As robots operate longer hours with fewer human touchpoints, fleet revenues are becoming a more durable and scalable contributor to the top line.

Platform partnerships are amplifying the revenue impact of fleet expansion. Serve Robotics’ integrations with Uber Eats and DoorDash — which together account for more than 80% of the U.S. food delivery market — allow robots to dynamically accept orders across platforms, increasing utilization and reducing idle time. At the same time, national restaurant partnerships with brands such as Shake Shack, Little Caesars and newly added Jersey Mike’s Subs are expanding order density across markets. New city launches are expected to enrich the company’s autonomy models by introducing varied real-world conditions that strengthen systemwide performance.

Looking ahead, management intends to target an annualized revenue run rate of $60 million to $80 million as fleet scale and efficiency build into 2026. With a rapidly expanding deployed base, rising utilization metrics and improving autonomy performance, Serve Robotics appears positioned to move beyond early-stage deployment and into a more revenue-driven growth phase. If execution remains on track, the company’s fleet expansion could represent a meaningful inflection point in its revenue trajectory.

SERV’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates

Shares of Serve Robotics have declined 6.9% in the past three months compared with the industry’s fall of 0.9%. In the same time frame, other industry players like Vertiv Holdings Co VRT and Leidos Holdings, Inc. LDOS have gained 17.9% and 1.1%, respectively, while BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. BBAI has declined 0.9%.

SERV Three-Month Price Performance

SERV stock is currently trading at a premium. It is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 38.28, well above the industry average of 16.95. Then again, other industry players, such as Vertiv, BigBear.ai and Leidos have P/S ratios of 5.05, 15.22 and 1.34, respectively.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Serve Robotics’ 2026 loss per share has widened from $1.37 to $1.79 in the past 60 days.

The company is likely to report dismal earnings, with projections indicating a 8.2% fall in 2026. Conversely, industry players like Vertiv, BigBear.ai and Leidos are likely to witness growth of 26.6%, 72.8% and 4.7%, respectively, year over year in 2026 earnings.

SERV stock currently has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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