Prediction Markets Business Booms: Where Does Robinhood Stand?

The prediction markets business is rapidly transforming from a niche curiosity into one of the most dynamic growth fronts in financial services, and Robinhood Markets HOOD is positioning itself at the forefront of this evolution.

Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell event-based contracts tied to real-world outcomes, including sports results, political elections and economic data. Over the past two years, trading volumes in these markets have surged, indicating a significant increase in investor and user interest. CEO Vlad Tenev said on HOOD’s third-quarter 2025 earnings call, “Prediction markets are really on fire. It’s hard to believe we launched this less than a year ago.”

For Robinhood, this trend has translated into a material new growth engine. Since introducing its prediction markets offering, initially powered by partner Kalshi, the business has emerged as one of the company’s fastest-growing revenue streams. By the third quarter of 2025, prediction markets were contributing roughly $100 million in annualized revenues, with volumes continuing to grow sharply. In October alone, the company reportedly generated $25 million in prediction-market fees. 

Robinhood’s ambitions extend well beyond distribution. In a strategic play, it agreed to acquire a 90% stake in MIAXdx, a Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)-licensed derivatives exchange and clearinghouse, in partnership with Susquehanna International Group. This move gives the company ownership of key infrastructure needed to execute and clear its prediction market contracts, reducing reliance on third parties and increasing long-term margins.

For HOOD, the rapid adoption of prediction markets highlights significant new growth potential beyond its traditional trading and cryptocurrency revenues, with increasing user engagement, expanded offerings and investments in regulated infrastructure, positioning the company as a leader in this expanding space.

Competitive Landscape Is Intensifying for HOOD

Kalshi, Polymarket, Gemini Space Station GEMI, Coinbase Global COIN and Crypto.com are all expanding their offerings, some with CFTC licenses. This means Robinhood is competing alongside both traditional and crypto-native players.

Coinbase is preparing to launch its prediction markets business soon as part of a broader product rollout that also includes tokenized stocks/equities. Coinbase’s prediction markets are part of its everything app strategy, aiming to broaden beyond pure crypto trading into a diversified financial app (including derivatives, tokenized assets, and now event contracts).

Meanwhile, Gemini received regulatory approval from the U.S. CFTC, specifically a Designated Contract Market (“DCM”) license, allowing it to offer regulated prediction markets to U.S. users. With a DCM license, Gemini can launch event contracts on outcomes ranging from sports and politics to markets and economic data.

HOOD’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimate Analysis

Robinhood’s performance has been robust this year, with prediction markets, cryptocurrency and options trading acting as key drivers. Its shares have soared 222% in the past year, underlining investor confidence in the company's expansion strategy. The industry has gained 39.8%.

Given the robust price performance, HOOD shares are currently trading at a massive premium to the industry. The company has a 12-month trailing price-to-tangible book (P/TB) of 13.69X compared with the industry average of 3.14X.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Robinhood’s 2025 and 2026 earnings implies year-over-year growth of 79.8% and 17.9%, respectively. In the past week, earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been revised upward to $1.96 and $2.31, respectively.

HOOD currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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