ETFs to Gain as an Estimated 159M Shoppers Flocked to "Super Saturday"

With the final shopping weekend before Christmas now behind us, a record 158.9 million consumers are expected to have shopped on "Super Saturday" — the final Saturday before Christmas, (both in-store and online) according to the National Retail Federation’s (NRF) latest report. This expected number reflects an improvement of 1.1 % from 157.2 million shoppers last year and surpasses the previous record of 158.5 million in 2022. 

Despite broader economic headwinds and shifting consumer priorities, this late-season surge should help many retailers close the final quarter of the year on a stronger footing, supporting earnings growth and, by extension, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) linked to consumer staples and broad retail benchmarks.

Looking ahead, as we identify ETFs poised to benefit from the Christmas holiday shopping spree, we first take a quick look at current consumer spending trends shaping the U.S. retail sector and the growth prospects they offer.

Navigating the 2025 US Consumer Spending Trend

This year’s shopping trends reveal a sophisticated "tactical consumer." Recent data from CNBC suggests a pivot in consumers’ preferences where shoppers are focusing on quality and meaningful gifts rather than just hunting for the deepest discounts. However, this optimism is tempered by a broader slowdown in the U.S. economy. Consumers, therefore, appear to be navigating a “two-speed” economy, with overall holiday spending projected to cross the $1 trillion mark even as many households rein in spending amid inflation, tariff-related pressures and labor market softness.

Consequently, while retail sales are likely to post growth this holiday season, analysts caution that the gains will be driven primarily by higher prices, not increased consumer outlays. To this end, S&P Global Ratings announced in a recent report, published last month, that it expects U.S. holiday sales (November-December) to grow 4% in 2025 from 2024, with holiday retail spending by consumers estimated to remain relatively flat, amid weaker consumer confidence, tariff impact and uncertain macroeconomic outlook.

Outlook for 2026

Considering the current shopping trend, the "silver lining" for ETFs lies in the resilience of mega-cap retailers like Walmart WMT and Costco COST. These companies have successfully captured "trade-down" traffic — high-income shoppers looking for value — ensuring that even as the economy cools, the largest components of retail funds remain robust.

Omnichannel leaders such as Amazon AMZN are also benefiting from this resilience, leveraging their seamless online shopping, last-minute delivery, and in-store pickup offerings.

For 2026, moderating consumer spending growth might lead to slower sales but not a collapse, pointing to an environment where efficiency, pricing power, and loyalty ecosystems matter most — characteristics that many top holdings in broad U.S. retail ETFs already possess.

To this end, Fitch Ratings expects modestly positive U.S. retail sales in 2026, driven by a full year of tariff-related inflation and some growth in consumer staples, partially offset by weak discretionary volume.

ETFs to Gain

Taking into account the aforementioned discussion, ETFs that focus on consumer staples stocks like WMT, along with ETFs that offer exposure to retailers with robust omnichannel networks like AMZN as well as ETFs that track e-commerce platforms like Shopify SHOP, EBAY Inc. EBAY or Alibaba BABA, may be better insulated from slowdowns. 

Thus, you may keep the following ETFs in your watchlist amid the record Super Saturday consumer traffic and the moderate growth expected in retail sales next year.

VanEck Retail ETF RTH

This fund, with assets worth $248 million, offers exposure to the world’s 26 largest and most traded retailers. Its top three holdings include AMZN (19.53%), WMT (11.79%) and COST (8.06%). 

RTH has risen 11.6% year to date. The fund charges 35 basis points (bps) as fees. It traded at a volume of 0.01 million shares in the last trading session. 

ProShares Online Retail ETF ONLN

This fund, with an average market cap of $179.17 billion, offers exposure to 19 companies at the forefront of the rising e-commerce theme. Its top three holdings include: AMZN (23.35%), BABA (11.44%) and EBAY (8.11%). 

ONLN has surged 31.9% year to date. The fund charges 58 bps as fees. It traded at a volume of 0.02 million shares in the last trading session. 

Global X E-commerce ETF EBIZ

This fund, with net assets worth $51 million, offers exposure to 41 selective global e-commerce companies. Its top three holdings include Expedia EXPE (6.10%), SHOP (5.57%) and BABA (4.87%).

EBIZ has soared 19.4% year to date. The fund charges 50 bps as fees. It traded at a volume of 0.01 million shares in the last trading session. 

Fidelity MSCI Consumer Staples Index ETF FSTA

This fund, with net assets worth $1.33 billion, offers exposure to 97 U.S. consumer staples stocks. Its top three holdings include WMT (14.48%), COST (11.96%) and Procter and Gamble (PG) (10.05%). 

FSTA has gained 2.4% year to date. The fund charges 8 bps as fees. It traded at a volume of 0.19 million shares in the last trading session. 

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