MP vs. UUUU: Which Rare Earth Stock Has an Edge Now?

MP Materials MP and Energy Fuels UUUU are two US-based companies expected to play important roles in America’s efforts to establish a secure domestic supply chain for rare earth elements (REEs) and other critical minerals.

Las Vegas, NV-based MP Materials is the largest producer of rare earth materials in the Western Hemisphere with a market capitalization of $9.6 billion. It operates the Mountain Pass Rare Earth Mine and Processing Facility, the only rare earth mining and processing site of scale in North America. 

Lakewood, CO- based Energy Fuels, with a market capitalization of $3.58 billion, is a leading uranium producer.  It owns the White Mesa Mill in Utah, the only fully licensed and operating conventional uranium processing facility in the United States. In addition to uranium, the mill has been repurposed to produce advanced rare earth element products, expanding Energy Fuels’ exposure to critical minerals.
REEs being critical inputs across many existing and emerging clean-tech applications, their demand is expected to increase manifold. For investors seeking to capitalize on this growth, the question is which stock they should put their bets on. To make an informed decision, let us analyze their fundamentals, growth potential and key challenges for MP and UUUU.

The Case for MP Materials

MP has established itself as the nation’s only fully integrated rare-earth producer, spanning the supply chain from mining and processing to advanced magnet production.

In July, MP Materials announced a landmark long-term agreement to supply Apple AAPL with rare earth magnets manufactured in the United States, entirely from recycled materials. Also, in July, MP Materials entered into an agreement with the United States Department of War (DoW), formerly known as the Department of Defense, to accelerate a domestic rare earth magnet supply chain. 

Backed by DoW’s investments, MP will construct the second domestic magnet manufacturing facility (the 10X Facility), which will take total U.S. rare earth magnet manufacturing capacity to 10,000 metric tons and cater to both the defense and commercial sectors. MP also expects to extend the lifespan of Mountain Pass through further exploration and enhanced processing.

MP Materials’ third-quarter 2025 revenues were down 15% year over year to $56.6 million. The company produced a record 721 metric tons of NdPr, marking a 51% year-over-year surge as a result of ramping production of separated products. Rare earth oxides (REO) production was, however, down 4% to 13,254 metric tons, still its second-best quarterly performance.  

The Materials segment’s revenues declined 50% year over year to $31.6 million as a 61% increase in NdPr oxide and metal revenues (due to higher sales volumes and prices) was offset by the absence of rare earth concentrates in the quarter. The Magnetics segment generated revenues of $21.9 million in the third quarter. Initial commercial magnet production remains on track for year-end. 

Lower revenues, combined with higher selling, general and administrative expenses and increased spending on advanced projects, resulted in a third-quarter loss of 10 cents per share. This was narrower than the 12-cent loss reported in the same quarter last year.

MP’s strategy of producing and selling more separated products at Mountain Pass and the ramp-up of output of magnetic precursor products are expected to lead to higher costs this year and likely lead to a full-year loss. The company, however, expects a return to profitability in the fourth quarter of 2025 and in 2026. With the DoW’s Price Protection Agreement commencing on Oct. 1, 2025, it will provide revenue stability and offset margin pressure. 

The Case for Energy Fuels

Energy Fuels started producing mixed REE carbonate from uranium and REE-bearing materials acquired from third parties, at a commercial scale from the White Mesa Mill in 2022. It began producing separated neodymium/praseodymium (NdPr) at a commercial scale at the mill in 2024. UUUU produced on-spec dysprosium (Dy) oxide at pilot scale in July 2025. Terbium (Tb) oxide pilot is expected this month and samarium (Sm) oxide production at pilot scale is planned for the first quarter of 2026. NdPr, Dy, Tb and Sm are all REEs and classified as critical minerals in the United States. 

Recently, Energy Fuels announced that its high-purity Dy oxide has passed all standards of a major South Korean automotive manufacturer for downstream rare earth permanent magnet (REPM) production. This follows the earlier qualification of its NdPr oxide (another key ingredient in REPMs) for use in NdFeB magnet applications. This makes Energy Fuels the first U.S. company to have both its "light" and "heavy" REEs qualified for use in permanent magnet applications, marking a notable milestone in rebuilding the U.S. rare earth supply chain.

UUUU’s third-quarter 2025 total revenues came in at $17.7 million, soaring 337.6% year over year, driven by higher uranium sales volumes, which offset the decline in prices. The company sold 240,000 pounds of uranium (including a spot sale of 100,000 pounds) at an average $72.38 per pound, generating uranium revenues of $17.37 million. The company had sold 50,000 pounds of uranium in the previous year quarter, generating $4 million in uranium revenues.

Costs applicable to revenues surged 592% to $12.78 million due to higher uranium sold at elevated per-pound costs. Exploration, development and processing expenses also climbed, along with standby, selling and administrative costs. Despite the revenue jump, these increased expenditures resulted in Energy Fuels reporting a loss of seven cents per share, unchanged from last year’s quarter.

Backed by its debt-free balance sheet, Energy Fuels is ramping up uranium production while developing significant REE capabilities. Its Donald Project in Australia could start production by the end of 2027. It is one of the richest deposits of HREEs in the world and could complement UUUU’s domestic operations. Also, its Toliara Project in Madagascar and the Bahia Project in Brazil contain significant quantities of light and heavy REE oxides, which can be supplied to U.S. and European manufacturers.

How do Estimates Compare for MP & UUUU?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MP Materials’ fiscal 2025 earnings is pegged at a loss of 22 cents per share, wider than the loss of 44 cents reported in fiscal 2024. The estimate for fiscal 2026 for MP Materials is pegged at earnings of 68 cents per share. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Energy Fuels’ fiscal 2025 earnings is at a loss of 35 cents per share. The 2026 estimate is a loss of six cents per share.
The earnings estimates for MP Materials for 2025 have moved up over the past 60 days, while the same for fiscal 2026 have moved down. Meanwhile, the estimates for Energy Fuels for both 2025 and 2026 have been revised downward. This is shown in the chart below. 

MP & UUUU: Price Performance & Valuation

MP Materials stock has gained 228.8% in the past year compared with Energy Fuels' 182.1% rise.

MP Materials is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio of 23.15X. Meanwhile, Energy Fuels is trading higher at a forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio of 41.55X.

MP Materials or Energy Fuels: Which Stock is the Better Pick?

MP Materials continues to post solid production gains while aggressively expanding capacity. Near-term earnings remain weighed down by higher costs, but the company’s status as the only fully integrated rare earth producer in the United States sets it apart. Its end-to-end operations, coupled with long-term partnerships with Apple and the DoW, strengthen its growth outlook and strategic importance.

Energy Fuels offers a dual play on uranium and rare earths, giving investors exposure to two critical markets. However, MP Materials currently has the edge in terms of price performance, cheaper valuation and a clearer path to profitability in 2026. MP currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) while UUUU currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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