The Last Time This Happened, Qualcomm Fell 10%

After showing many promising signs over the past quarter, shares of Qualcomm Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM) are flashing a sudden warning signal as the new year begins. Just before Christmas, the stock’s Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) chart logged a bearish crossover, confirming a momentum shift that has continued into this week. The mega-cap tech stock closed just below $174 on Dec. 30, still up roughly 40% since April, but also down about 15% from the late-October surge that briefly reignited bullish enthusiasm.

Since then, however, Qualcomm has been narrowing into a tight range, and while its long-term fundamentals remain supportive, its short-term technicals are flashing caution. What makes it all the more noteworthy is that the last time this exact setup appeared, the outcome was not kind to the bulls. Could history be about to repeat itself? Let’s jump in and take a closer look. 

What Qualcomm’s Bearish MACD Crossover Signals Now

The MACD is a momentum indicator that tracks the relationship between two moving averages. When the shorter-term average crosses below the longer-term one, it’s regarded as a reliable signal that upside momentum is fading and that sellers are beginning to gain the upper hand. Importantly, this is not just an intraday wobble. The crossover that appeared just before Christmas has now continued and picked up pace into this week.

That matters because MACD signals tend to be more reliable when they appear after extended rallies. Qualcomm’s run since April has been one of its most sustained in years, and so this sudden divergence could be an early warning that buyers are starting to step back, rather than to continue building positions.  

Now, it doesn’t mean a breakdown from here is inevitable. But it does suggest that the stock is vulnerable if bulls fail to step in soon, especially given how the stock behaved the last time this happened.

The Last Time QCOM Flashed This Signal, Shares Dropped 10%

The most recent comparison point came less than two months ago in early November. At the time, Qualcomm had also printed a bearish MACD crossover after a strong move to multi-year highs. In a move that surprised us all, what followed was a swift decline of more than 10% over the following two weeks.

The setup then shares several similarities with today. The stock had been moving higher into the middle of December since bottoming out from November’s correction, but in the face of increased selling pressure over the past fortnight, the bulls have been nowhere to be seen. 

History might not repeat perfectly when it comes to stocks, but it often rhymes. The point isn’t so much that Qualcomm is definitely going to fall another 10% from here; it’s that, at the very least, the stock is flashing a warning signal that is worth noting. 

Why This Qualcomm Setup Could Play Out Differently

There are also reasons not to be overly negative. Unlike early November, Qualcomm hasn’t just retreated from a multi-year high, and is actually starting to trade within a tightening range. With the longer-term uptrend still intact, it could be said to have been coiling into a pre-breakout setup over the past week, more so than starting to break down. 

Its fundamentals also look as strong as they have all year, with expectations building for Qualcomm to once again top the consensus in their first earnings report of 2026, due in early February. As we’ve highlighted in recent weeks, too, investor perception has been improving as the company’s diversification efforts continue to build momentum. 

Especially when the broader equity market is in risk-on mode, this underlying narrative supports higher prices over time, even if the near-term path is choppy. That longer-term view is supported by TradeSmith’s Health Indicator, a volatility-based metric that has consistently ranked Qualcomm in the green zone for six consecutive months.

What Bulls Must Do for Qualcomm to Start 2026 Strong

Still, for Qualcomm to start 2026 on the right foot, the bulls need to reassert control soon. If the stock continues to drift lower below $172, it would significantly increase the odds of another leg down similar to November’s move.

Conversely, if buyers step in and momentum begins to turn back up, this crossover could prove to be a false alarm within a broader uptrend. Having worked hard to shake off its reputation for exasperating investors with multiple false promises, Qualcomm has earned some benefit of the doubt after its strong performance since April, but that goodwill is not unlimited.

The next week or two will tell a lot. A stock can coil only for so long before it has to choose a direction, one way or the other. With its fundamentals pointing higher and technicals pulling in the opposite direction, Qualcomm is approaching a moment of decision.

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