Olin Revises Q4 2025 EBITDA Outlook Citing Segment Shortfall

Olin Corporation OLN has updated its outlook for the fourth quarter of 2025 due to a shortfall in its Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls segment. The company now expects adjusted EBITDA of approximately $67 million, a reduction from its earlier guidance of $110-$130 million.

This shortfall had stemmed from issues at Olin’s Freeport, TX, facility, including an extended planned maintenance turnaround, unplanned downtime, and a lower-than-anticipated demand for pipeline chlorine, which pressured the segment’s performance in the quarter.

The decline in chlorine demand, operational disruptions and interruption of raw material supply by a third party all contributed adversely during the end of the quarter. The Freeport site has since returned to normal operations, easing the pressure.

The management remains focused on safe operations, cost reduction initiatives, and a disciplined value-first commercial approach.

The Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls unit’s revenues amounted to $924 million in the third quarter, which rose around 6% year over year. The upside in sales was primarily due to increased volume.

OLN shares have declined 27.3% over the past year compared with the industry’s 20% dip.

OLN’s Zacks Rank & Key Picks

OLN currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Some better-ranked stocks in the Basic Materials space are Agnico Eagle Mines AEM, Kinross Gold Corporation KGC and Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited HMY.

At present, AEM and KGC sport a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) each, while HMY carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AEM’s 2025 earnings is pegged at $7.87 per share, indicating a rise of 86.05%. Its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with an average surprise of 11.63%. AEM’s shares have gained 118.4% over the past year.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for KGC’s 2025 earnings is pinned at $1.68 per share, indicating a 147.06% year-over-year increase. Its shares have surged 194.2% over the past year.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HMY’s current fiscal-year earnings is pinned at $2.68 per share, indicating a 111.02% year-over-year increase. HMY’s shares have gained 141% over the past year.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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