ODFL Stock Down 4.2% Y/Y: Will the Plunge Continue Throughout 2026?

Old Dominion Freight Line’s ODFL shares have had an unimpressive run in a year. Shares of this trucking company have plunged 4.2% in the same period, underperforming its industry’s 1.4% fall.

Given the unimpressive price performance, let's take a deeper dive into the factors driving this transportation stock’s decline. In this write-up, we also assess whether ODFL, which currently has a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), is likely to suffer more going forward.

Downturn in freight market demand weighed heavily on Old Dominion’s third-quarter performance, leading to declines in both revenues and earnings per diluted share. The company experienced a 9% drop in LTL tons per day, driven by a 7.9% decrease in LTL shipments per day and a 1.2% reduction in LTL weight per shipment, reflecting broad-based weakness in shipping activity.

Although LTL revenue per hundredweight increased, pricing gains failed to offset the sharp decline in volumes. Lower shipment counts and lighter loads reduced network utilization and pressured financial results, underscoring the negative impact of macroeconomic softness on Old Dominion’s third-quarter performance. This freight market downturn is likely to hurt ODFL in 2026 as well.

Moreover, ODFL operates in a challenging macroeconomic environment. Economic uncertainty, evolving tariff policies and heightened geopolitical tensions are increasing operational and compliance risks. These conditions are prompting companies to delay investments, reassess forecasts and remain highly agile, adding another layer of uncertainty to ODFL’s near-term prospects.

ODFL’s Estimate Revisions Continue Heading South

Driven by the aforementioned headwinds, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth - quarter 2025 earnings has been revised 0.93% downward over the past 60 days and is pegged at $1.06 per share. Meanwhile, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 earnings is pinned at $5.24 per share, indicating 4.4% fall over the past 60 days.

Bearish Industry Rank: The industry to which Old Dominion Freight Line belongs currently has a Zacks Industry Rank of 208 (out of 244). Such an unfavorable rank places it in the bottom 15% of Zacks Industries. Studies show that 50% of a stock price movement is directly related to the performance of the industry group it belongs to.

A mediocre stock within a strong group is likely to outclass a robust stock in a weak industry. Reckoning the industry’s performance becomes imperative in this case.

Stocks to Consider

Investors interested in the Zacks Transportation sector may consider Expeditors International of Washington EXPD and Global Ship Lease GSL.

EXPD currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

EXPD has an expected earnings growth rate of 3.7% for the current year.  The company has an encouraging earnings surprise history. Its earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the trailing four quarters, delivering an average beat of 13.9%.

Global Ship Lease currently carries a Zacks Rank #2.

GSL has an expected earnings growth rate of 2.60% for the current year. The company has an encouraging earnings surprise history. Its earnings topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the trailing four quarters, delivering an average beat of 16.8%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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