BP plc BP, a leading integrated energy giant, announced its updated fourth-quarter 2025 and full-year guidance. BP has increased its underlying effective tax rate for 2025 to 42% from 40% in its previous guidance.
BP expects upstream production in the fourth quarter of 2025 to be broadly unchanged from the prior quarter. Stable oil output is expected to offset weaker volumes from gas and low-carbon energy, indicating steady performance in BP’s core oil operations during the period.
Lower oil and gas prices are expected to reduce realizations, negatively impacting fourth-quarter 2025 results by $100-$300 million in gas & low-carbon energy and by $200-$400 million in oil production and operations, relative to third-quarter 2025 performance.
Further, BP anticipates recognizing post-tax impairment charges of around $4-5 billion, largely related to its gas and low-carbon transition businesses.
In the Customers & products segment, BP anticipates lower seasonal volumes from customers and broadly flat fuel margins. Higher maintenance costs and reduced output following a fire at the Whiting refinery are expected to offset the modest improvement in refining margins for its products.
Net debt is anticipated to be between $22 billion and $23 billion at the end of fourth-quarter 2025, down from $26.1 billion in third-quarter 2025, supported by around $3.5 billion in divestment proceeds during the quarter and roughly $5.3 billion in the full year. This signals BP’s focus on financial resilience and capital discipline.
BP’s updated fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 guidance suggests that lower oil and gas prices, coupled with soft customer demand, are expected to weigh on its fourth-quarter 2025 performance.
BP currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Other key players in the integrated oil and gas space whose business models are exposed to crude price volatility are Chevron Corporation CVX, Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM and Eni S.p.A. E. CVX currently carries a Zacks Rank #3, while XOM has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) and E carries a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).
According to CVX, the company has invested $44 billion in the United States since 2022, including $9 billion in 2025.
XOM has advantaged assets in the U.S. Permian Basin, Guyana (offshore) and Liquefied Natural Gas projects. ExxonMobil has achieved a record production volume of 4.8Mboed from the Permian Basin and Guyana as reported in its third-quarter 2025 earnings.
Eni engages across the entire energy chain, from hydrocarbons to next-generation energy technologies and has a global footprint.
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BP p.l.c. (BP): Free Stock Analysis Report Chevron Corporation (CVX): Free Stock Analysis Report Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM): Free Stock Analysis Report Eni SpA (E): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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