Old National Bank (NASDAQ:ONB) Misses Q4 CY2025 Revenue Estimates

Midwestern regional bank Old National Bancorp (NASDAQ:ONB) fell short of the markets revenue expectations in Q4 CY2025, but sales rose 40.9% year on year to $698.6 million. Its non-GAAP profit of $0.62 per share was 4.8% above analysts’ consensus estimates.

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"Old National’s strong fourth quarter earnings punctuate an exceptional year that set new organizational records for adjusted earnings per share, net income, and efficiency ratio," said Chairman and CEO Jim Ryan.

Company Overview

Tracing its roots back to 1834 when Andrew Jackson was president, Old National Bancorp (NASDAQ:ONB) is a bank holding company that provides commercial and consumer loans, deposit services, wealth management, and treasury solutions primarily throughout the Midwest region.

Sales Growth

In general, banks make money from two primary sources. The first is net interest income, which is interest earned on loans, mortgages, and investments in securities minus interest paid out on deposits. The second source is non-interest income, which can come from bank account, credit card, wealth management, investing banking, and trading fees. Thankfully, Old National Bank’s 24.7% annualized revenue growth over the last five years was incredible. Its growth beat the average banking company and shows its offerings resonate with customers, a helpful starting point for our analysis.

We at StockStory place the most emphasis on long-term growth, but within financials, a half-decade historical view may miss recent interest rate changes, market returns, and industry trends. Old National Bank’s annualized revenue growth of 17.2% over the last two years is below its five-year trend, but we still think the results suggest healthy demand.

This quarter, Old National Bank achieved a magnificent 40.9% year-on-year revenue growth rate, but its $698.6 million of revenue fell short of Wall Street’s lofty estimates.

Net interest income made up 79.1% of the company’s total revenue during the last five years, meaning lending operations are Old National Bank’s largest source of revenue.

Our experience and research show the market cares primarily about a bank’s net interest income growth as non-interest income is considered a lower-quality and non-recurring revenue source.

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Tangible Book Value Per Share (TBVPS)

The balance sheet drives banking profitability since earnings flow from the spread between borrowing and lending rates. As such, valuations for these companies concentrate on capital strength and sustainable equity accumulation potential.

When analyzing banks, tangible book value per share (TBVPS) takes precedence over many other metrics. This measure isolates genuine per-share value by removing intangible assets of debatable liquidation worth. Traditional metrics like EPS are helpful but face distortion from M&A activity and loan loss accounting rules.

Old National Bank’s TBVPS grew at a tepid 3.7% annual clip over the last five years. However, TBVPS growth has accelerated recently, growing by 11.4% annually over the last two years from $11.04 to $13.71 per share.

Over the next 12 months, Consensus estimates call for Old National Bank’s TBVPS to grow by 14.8% to $15.74, decent growth rate.

Key Takeaways from Old National Bank’s Q4 Results

It was good to see Old National Bank narrowly top analysts’ tangible book value per share expectations this quarter. On the other hand, its revenue slightly missed and its net interest income fell slightly short of Wall Street’s estimates. Overall, this quarter could have been better. The stock remained flat at $22.83 immediately following the results.

Old National Bank may have had a tough quarter, but does that actually create an opportunity to invest right now? The latest quarter does matter, but not nearly as much as longer-term fundamentals and valuation, when deciding if the stock is a buy. We cover that in our actionable full research report which you can read here (it’s free).