Earnings Estimates Keep Rising: A Closer Look

Note: The following is an excerpt from this week’s Earnings Trends report. You can access the full report that contains detailed historical actual and estimates for the current and following periods, please click here>>>

Here are the key points:

• The Q4 earnings season is off to a solid start, with the growth pace accelerating and most management teams painting a stable-to-positive outlook for their businesses. Companies are comfortably beating consensus estimates, with the Q4 EPS and revenue beats percentages tracking above historical averages.

• Favorable management commentary is helping estimates for 2026 Q1 and beyond to go up. This positive revisions trend is particularly notable for the Finance sector at this stage, but estimates are also trending higher for the Tech, Retail, Construction, and Transportation sectors. 

• Total earnings for the 51 S&P 500 members that have reported Q4 results are up +17.2% from the same period last year on +7.5% higher revenues, with 88.2% beating EPS estimates and 72.5% beating revenue estimates.

• For the Finance sector, we now have Q4 results from 42.8% of the sector’s market capitalization in the S&P 500 index. Total earnings for these companies are up +13.9% from the same period last year on +7.0% higher revenues, with 90.5% of the companies beating EPS estimates and 71.4% beating revenue estimates.

Rising Finance Sector Earnings Estimates

The market’s reaction to results from JPMorgan JPM, Bank of America BAC, Citigroup C, and others suggests a disappointing performance from these banking leaders. We don’t think the banks’ Q4 results or comments about the outlook are negative and see these stocks’ post-release weakness in a ‘sell-the-news’ type of framework, particularly after their recent outperformance.

Citigroup shares have been particularly hot over the past year, outperforming its peers and the broader market as investors gain more confidence in the new management team’s restructuring and repositioning plans. Market participants had been justifiably skeptical earlier, as Citigroup appeared unable to turn its fortunes around over the years. Unlike Citigroup, JPMorgan shares benefited from its reputation for operating excellence and industry leadership.

We should keep in mind, however, that Citi, Bank of America, and JPMorgan shares had been losing ground since the start of the New Year, with the Q4 earnings results adding to the downtrend.

The chart below shows the one-year performance of JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Bank of America shares relative to the S&P 500 index.

Management teams’ macroeconomic commentary has been reassuring, with favorable consumer spending and stable credit quality trends. The outlook for loan demand and investment banking advisory services remains positive, even though growth has longer to arrive as a result of policy uncertainty like tariffs and the Fed. Headlines about the administration’s credit card plans remain headwinds, but the overall outlook remains positive.

Management teams’ outlook of stable-to-positive business trends is starting to show up in the group’s revisions trend, with estimates for the current period (2026 Q1) going up, as the chart below shows.

The chart below shows the Finance sector’s growth picture on a quarterly basis.

The Earnings Big Picture

The chart below shows expectations for 2025 Q4 in terms of what was achieved in the preceding four periods and what is currently expected for the next three quarters.

The chart below shows the overall earnings picture for the S&P 500 index on an annual basis.

The Tech sector has an outsized role in the S&P 500 index. The sector is expected to bring 36% of the index’s total earnings over the coming four-quarter period and currently accounts for 42.5% of the index’s total market capitalization. The Tech sector’s positive estimate revision trend is a major reason its members enjoy a strong market following and support.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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