Rio Tinto vs. Southern Copper: Which Mining Stock Looks Stronger Now?

Rio Tinto Group RIO and Southern Copper Corporation SCCO are both familiar names operating in the Zacks Mining - Miscellaneous industry. As rivals, the companies are focused on the extraction of minerals including copper, zinc etc and pursuing growth through exploration activities, mine expansions and strategic partnerships.

Both companies operate through capital-intensive mining businesses that require long-term project development, regulatory approvals and hefty investment in infrastructure and technology. Let’s take a closer look at their fundamentals, growth prospects and challenges.

The Case for RIO

Rio Tinto is benefiting from rising copper production, driven by strong operational performance across its assets. Per the production results, the company’s consolidated copper output increased 5% year over year in the fourth quarter of 2025.

RIO’s growth pipeline is progressing at a steady pace. In December 2025, the company achieved its first copper production at the Johnson Camp mine in Arizona using its proprietary Nuton technology. This marks a significant milestone, as Nuton enables cleaner, faster and more efficient copper recovery at an industrial scale.

The Johnson Camp deployment includes the design and delivery of a heap leach technology package, targeting approximately 30,000 tons of refined copper over a four-year demonstration period. Through Nuton, RIO aims to deliver the lowest-carbon copper production footprint in the United States at this site.

Also, the company is actively collaborating with U.S. customers to strengthen the domestic copper supply. Its total copper production in 2025 reached 883 kilotonne (kt), up 11% on a year-over-year basis.

In the fourth quarter, RIO’s iron ore operations in the Pilbara facility showed improvement, with shipments rising 7% from the previous year. The aluminum production also delivered encouraging results. RIO’s aluminum output rose 2% in the quarter, on a year-over-year basis, as refinery and smelter operations improved.

Several major growth projects of the company are progressing as well. In December 2025, RIO’s Rhodes Ridge joint venture approved a $191 million feasibility study to develop one of the world’s major undeveloped iron ore deposits in Western Australia, aiming for an initial annual production of 40-50 million tons. The study is expected to conclude in 2029. Also, in October 2025, at the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, the first ore was loaded and transported, marking the start of commissioning across the mine, rail and port infrastructure.

Despite the overall solid performance, the company faced some challenges during the quarter. Weather-related disruptions earlier in 2025 affected iron ore volumes. Planned maintenance activities at some copper mining projects temporarily reduced output, while cost pressures from inflation and higher sustaining capital spending impacted margins.

The Case for SCCO

Southern Copper is gaining from its strategy of moving forward with its development and exploration projects. The long-awaited Tia Maria project, located in Arequipa, Peru, with an annual capacity of 120,000 tons of SX- EW copper cathodes, is expected to start in 2027. This project will use state-of-the-art SX-EW technology with the highest international environmental standards.

In Mexico, El Pilar, which is expected to start in 2028, will contribute around 36,000 tons of copper cathodes annually. This operation will use highly cost-efficient and environmentally friendly SX-EW technology. 

By 2030, El Arco in Mexico is expected to become operational. It is a world-class copper deposit located in the central part of the Baja California peninsula with ore reserves of more than 1,230 million tons with an average ore grade of 0.40% and 141 million tons of leach material with an average ore grade of 0.27%. The project includes an open-pit mine with a combined 120 ktpd concentrator and 28 ktpy SX-EW operations.

Peru’s Los Chancas project is slated to add 130,000 tons of copper starting in 2031. This will be followed by Michiquillay in 2032 with an expected 225,000 tons of copper. Michiquillay is expected to become one of Peru's largest copper mines with an expected mine life of more than 25 years. 

Backed by the above-mentioned projects and investments, SCCO expects production to steadily build toward 1,084,000 tons by the end of this decade. Growth is projected to accelerate from 2031 onward, with copper output envisioned to reach 1,536,000 tons by 2034.

However, Southern Copper’s total operating costs rose 5.8% year over year in the first nine months of 2025 due to an increase in other costs of sales, including workers’ participation, repairing materials (mainly heavy equipment spare parts), inventory variance and exchange rate variance.

Also, high labor costs, along with ongoing inflation for repair materials, operating materials, inventory consumption, operation contractors and services, will likely continue to weigh on SCCO’s margins.

How Does the Zacks Consensus Estimate Compare for RIO & SCCO?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for RIO’s 2026 sales implies a year-over-year increase of 6.2%, while the same for earnings per share (EPS) indicates growth of 5.7%. The company’s EPS estimates have increased 10.1% over the past 60 days for 2026.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SCCO’s 2026 sales and EPS implies year-over-year growth of 10.2% and 17.8%, respectively. The company’s EPS estimates for 2026 have increased 8.1% over the past 60 days. 

Price Performance and Valuation of RIO & SCCO

In the past three months, RIO’s shares have risen 25.8%, while SCCO stock has surged 43.4%. 

Rio Tinto is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 12.55X while Southern Copper’s forward earnings multiple sits at 29.64X.

Final Take

Rio Tinto and Southern Copper are both well-positioned to benefit from long-term growth in the copper market, supported by strong asset bases and expanding production pipelines. RIO’s near-to-midterm outlook is strengthened by rising copper output, progress at the Nuton-led Johnson Camp project and diversified exposure across iron ore and aluminum, while Southern Copper’s long-term growth is driven by a robust portfolio of large-scale projects scheduled to come online over the next decade.

However, Rio Tinto’s strong earnings estimates and an attractive valuation make it a better pick for investors than SCCO currently. While RIO sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), Southern Copper currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). 

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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