Should BXP Stock be in Your Portfolio Pre-Q4 Earnings?

BXP, Inc. BXP is slated to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Jan. 27, after market close. The company’s quarterly results are likely to display a year-over-year rise in revenues and funds from operations (FFO) per share.

In the last reported quarter, this office real-estate investment trust (REIT) reported FFO per share of $1.74, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.72. The quarterly results reflected better-than-anticipated revenues on healthy leasing activity.

Over the preceding four quarters, BXP’s FFO per share surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate twice, missed in the other and met in the remaining period, the average beat being 0.74%. This is depicted in the graph below:

BXP, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

BXP, Inc. price-eps-surprise | BXP, Inc. Quote

U.S. Office Market in Q4

Per a Cushman & Wakefield report, U.S. office demand turned positive in the second half of 2025, marking a key inflection point for the sector. Leasing activity strengthened, vacancy is expected to peak later this year and demand is becoming more geographically widespread. Competition for premium office space has intensified, while sublease availability continues to narrow. With new construction starts largely absent, conversions and repurposing of office assets are playing a bigger role in shaping supply.

The demand improvement was evident in absorption trends. Net absorption for the broader U.S. office market turned positive in Q4 2025, ending 12 consecutive quarters of declines. While full-year 2025 absorption remained negative at 6.7 million square feet (msf), this marked a sharp improvement from the five-year annual average decline of 50.5 msf. Excluding five markets, the other 86 posted 11.1 msf of net absorption, with 50 U.S. markets turning positive in 2025—the strongest since 2019—highlighting a broad-based recovery.

Demand for Class A office assets is ubiquitous across U.S. markets. Class A absorption totaled 3.5 msf in Q4 2025 and reached 9.2 msf for the full year, reflecting growing competition for high-quality office space.

On the supply side, elevated construction costs and policy uncertainty have curtailed new development. Vacancy declined in nearly half of U.S. markets over the past year, with the national vacancy rate standing at 20.5% in Q4 2025, up just 30 basis points year over year. Sublease availability also trended lower across roughly 60% of markets. Meanwhile, office conversions and repurposing have exacerbated supply constraints, further tightening available space, even as developers begin evaluating new projects to address emerging shortages.      

BXP: Factors at Play

In the context of the above U.S. office industry background, BXP is poised to gain from the growing preference for quality office spaces among tenants and its ability to offer such spaces. BXP’s properties are likely to have witnessed healthy leasing activity in the fourth quarter. Also, the return-to-office policies implemented by many companies are likely to drive the demand for BXP's strategically located, high-quality office properties.

Moreover, the company is actively boosting its portfolio through repositioning initiatives like acquisitions, the development of properties in core markets and shedding properties in non-core markets. This is likely to have lent a positive impetus to its leasing activity, boosting its top line in the reported quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter revenues is pegged at $814.7 million, implying a 2.1% increase from the prior-year quarter’s reported number. The estimate for full-year 2025 is pinned at $3.24 billion, indicating 2% growth year over year.

BXP’s activities in the to-be-reported quarter were inadequate in garnering analysts’ confidence. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter FFO per share has remained unchanged at $1.80 over the past three months. However, it suggests a marginal increase from the year-ago quarter’s tally. Meanwhile, the consensus estimate for full-year 2025 FFO per share has moved upward by a cent to $6.90 over the past week.

What Our Quantitative Model Predicts for BXP

Our proven model doesn’t conclusively predict a surprise in terms of FFO per share for BXP this quarter. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an FFO beat, which is not the case here.

BXP has an Earnings ESP of -0.07% and currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are two stocks from the broader REIT sector — W.P. Carey WPC and Host Hotels & Resorts HST— you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to report a surprise this quarter.

W.P. Carey, scheduled to report quarterly numbers on Feb. 10, has an Earnings ESP of +1.06% and carries a Zacks Rank of 2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Host Hotels & Resorts, slated to release quarterly numbers on Feb. 18, has an Earnings ESP of +1.92% and carries a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.

Note: Anything related to earnings presented in this write-up represents funds from operations (FFO), a widely used metric to gauge the performance of REITs.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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