NVR Is Set to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

NVR, Inc. NVR is expected to report lower earnings in the fourth quarter of 2025. Homebuilding revenues are also likely to have decreased on a year-over-year basis, given soft demand, elevated inventories and margin headwinds.

In the last reported quarter, earnings and homebuilding revenues surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.1% and 6.3%, respectively. However, both metrics declined on a year-over-year basis by 14% and 4.4%.

The company’s earnings beat the consensus mark in one of the last four quarters and missed on the other three occasions, the average surprise being 1.6%.

Trend in Estimate Revision for NVR

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s EPS has decreased to $104.96 from $105.42 in the past 30 days. The estimated figure indicates a 25% decrease from the year-ago EPS of $139.93.

NVR, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

NVR, Inc. price-eps-surprise | NVR, Inc. Quote

The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $2.35 billion, indicating a decrease of 15.4% from the year-ago reported figure of $2.78 billion.

Factors Likely to Shape NVR’s Q4 Results

NVR’s fourth-quarter Homebuilding revenues are expected to reflect the ongoing softness in the homebuilding industry. Demand conditions are expected to have remained uneven, weighed down by ongoing affordability pressures and weakened consumer confidence. Persistently high and volatile mortgage rates, along with broader economic and geopolitical uncertainties, likely limited homebuyer activity.

Our model predicts Homebuilding revenues (which accounted for 97.8% of total revenues in 2024) to decline 16% year over year to $2.3 billion in the to-be-reported quarter. For the quarter to be reported, we anticipate total settlements to decrease 18% to 5,067 units on a year-over-year basis.

The company's bottom line is expected to have decreased year over year in the quarter due to higher building materials and labor costs. We expect the homebuilding gross margin to be 21.1%, down 250 basis points year over year.

Our model predicts total new orders to increase 8.9% year over year to 5,192 units. The backlog is currently pegged at 9,290 units, which indicates a decline from 9,953 units reported a year ago. We expect the value of the backlog to be $4.5 billion, implying a decline from $4.8 billion in the corresponding year-ago quarter.

What the Zacks Model Unveils for NVR

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for NVR for the quarter to be reported. The company does not have the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) — to increase the odds of an earnings beat.

NVR’s Earnings ESP: The company has an Earnings ESP of +8.98%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

NVR’s Zacks Rank: NVR currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are some companies in the Zacks Construction sector that, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in the quarter to be reported.

VSE VSEC has an Earnings ESP of +9.85% and a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The company’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four quarters, the average surprise being 30.9%. VSE’s earnings for the to-be-reported quarter are expected to decrease 11.1%.

Amentum Holdings, Inc. AMTM has an Earnings ESP of +7.55% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.

For the quarter to be reported, Amentum’s earnings are expected to increase 3.9%. Amentum’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four quarters, the average surprise being 8.6%.

United Rentals, Inc. URI currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.64% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

The company’s earnings beat estimates in one of the last four quarters and missed on the remaining three occasions, the average negative surprise being 2.1%. United Rentals’ earnings for the quarter are expected to increase 2.7%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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