What Should You Expect From Brinker International's Q2 Earnings?

Brinker International, Inc. EAT is scheduled to report second-quarter fiscal 2026 results on Jan. 28, before the opening bell.

In the last reported quarter, adjusted earnings and revenues beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 9.7% and 1.2%, respectively. On a year-over-year basis, both metrics increased 103.1% and 18.4%, respectively.

The company’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 18.7%.

EAT’s Trend in Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal second-quarter EPS has remained unchanged at $2.51 in the past 30 days. The expected figure indicates a decline of 10.4% from the year-ago quarter’s $2.80.

Brinker International, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Brinker International, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Brinker International, Inc. Quote

The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $1.4 billion. The metric implies growth of 3.1% from the year-ago quarter’s figure.

Factors Likely to Shape EAT’s Quarterly Results

Revenues

Brinker International’s fiscal second-quarter revenues are expected to increase year over year, supported by solid performance at Chili’s and higher guest traffic. Effective marketing and brand-building initiatives are driving guest acquisition, while continued improvements in food quality, service and restaurant atmosphere are strengthening repeat visitation. Additionally, ongoing menu innovation, combined with a compelling value proposition and disciplined execution, is expected to sustain momentum and contribute meaningfully to sales growth.

The first four remodel pilot restaurants, along with the modern Greenville prototype that reinforces Chili’s differentiated brand identity and guest appeal, are likely to have supported improved performance. Our model predicts fiscal second-quarter comps to rise 2.9% year over year.

While Maggiano’s revenues are estimated to decrease 7.4% to $138.3 million, our model predicts Chili’s revenues to grow 3.9% year over year to $1.26 billion. The combined impact of strong Chili’s performance, higher traffic, effective value-driven marketing and continued menu innovation is expected to support solid topline growth in the second quarter of fiscal 2026.

Margins

Brinker International’s bottom-line performance is likely to be constrained by softer results at Maggiano’s, alongside margin pressure from mid-single-digit commodity inflation, up from prior expectations, driven primarily by tariffs on beef and ground beef, with some impact from shrimp. These factors have resulted in higher food and beverage costs and an unfavorable menu mix. Margins also faced pressure from approximately 3.8% wage inflation, increased staffing levels to support higher traffic, and rising workers’ compensation and health insurance costs.

However, these headwinds might have been partially offset by strong performance at Chili’s, strategic pricing initiatives and disciplined cost management, which together are expected to support margin resilience. Our model predicts total operating costs to increase 4.5% year over year to $1.24 billion.

What Our Model Says About EAT Stock

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Brinker International this time around. A stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. This is not the case here, as you will see below.

EAT’s Earnings ESP: Brinker International has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

EAT’s Zacks Rank: The company has a Zacks Rank #2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are some stocks worth considering from the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.

BJ's Restaurants, Inc. BJRI has an Earnings ESP of +7.26% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present. 

BJRI is expected to register a 27.7% increase in earnings for the to-be-reported quarter. It reported an earnings beat in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 155.6%.

Bath & Body Works, Inc. BBWI currently has an Earnings ESP of +4.07% and a Zacks Rank of 2.

BBWI reported an earnings beat in two of the trailing four quarters, missing on one occasion, met on one occasion, and delivering an average negative surprise of 1.5%. Its earnings for the to-be-reported quarter are expected to decrease 16.3%.

Abercrombie & Fitch Co. ANF has an Earnings ESP of +0.37% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.

ANF is expected to register a 0.3% decrease in earnings for the to-be-reported quarter. It reported an earnings beat in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 8.2%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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