Online prediction markets are experiencing a significant increase in bettors who are making considerable gains by betting against the ambitious, yet often unfulfilled, plans of Elon Musk.
Bettors on prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are earning tens of thousands of dollars by betting against Musk’s initiatives. These include robotaxi service in California and the creation of a third political party in the United States.
Prediction markets offer a more cautious and granular outlook for Tesla. On Friday, Kalshi odds showed just a 14.5% chance that Tesla will launch its humanoid robot, Optimus, within the year.
On Friday, the Polymarket priced a 68% chance that Tesla will roll out unsupervised Full Self-Driving by June 30, despite Elon Musk previously suggesting a 2025 timeline. In contrast, Kalshi showed 100% odds after Musk said a day earlier that human safety monitors would be removed from robotaxi operations in Texas.
David Bensoussan, a Polymarket user, wagered nearly $10,000 that Musk would not follow through with his threat to form a new political party during a disagreement with President Donald Trump. Bensoussan made a 10% return when Musk did not follow through.
Despite Musk’s history of unfulfilled promises, his fan base remains strong. However, the validity of his claims is now being tested in real time as prediction markets grow in popularity.
Bensoussan has placed bets on 12 prediction markets related to Musk or Tesla and has made more than $36,000 on bets that have reached a resolution.
Musk’s artificial intelligence company, xAI, has integrations with both Kalshi and Polymarket. Both platforms feature dozens of Musk-related topics at any given time, far surpassing the interest in other public figures.
Prediction markets have seen a surge in interest since 2024, when a federal appeals court cleared the way for “event contracts” such as betting on election outcomes.
