Fair Isaac to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

Fair Isaac Corporation FICO is set to report its first-quarter fiscal 2026 results on Jan. 28.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter fiscal 2026 revenues is pegged at $500.78 million, suggesting an increase of 13.82% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

The consensus mark for earnings is pegged at $6.95 per share, down by a couple of pennies over the past 30 days, indicating 20.03% year-over-year growth.

The company’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters while missing the same on one occasion, the average surprise being 3.81%.

Fair Isaac Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Fair Isaac Corporation price-eps-surprise | Fair Isaac Corporation Quote

Let’s see how things have shaped up prior to this announcement.

Factors to Note

FICO’s first-quarter fiscal 2026 performance is expected to have benefited from sustained growth in Scores revenues, driven by the adoption of its most advanced scoring solutions and strong consumer demand.

The adoption of FICO Score 10T, particularly in the nonconforming mortgage market, has been a significant contributor to its growth. With nearly 40 lenders already using FICO Score 10T for mortgage decisions, accounting for $316 billion in annual originations, the company is well-positioned to capitalize on this momentum in the to-be-reported quarter.

FICO expects an acceleration of Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) starting in the fiscal first quarter of 2026. This growth is anticipated as recent deals and bookings for the FICO platform go live.  The company has seen strong momentum in its Software segment, particularly in its platform ARR, which grew 16% year over year in the fiscal fourth quarter. This indicates that the adoption of the FICO platform is gaining traction, and the company expects this trend to continue in the first quarter of fiscal 2026 as well.

FICO’s introduction of innovative solutions, such as the FICO Focused Foundation Model for financial services, which includes domain-specific generative AI models like FICO FLM and FICO FSM, has been noteworthy. These models deliver accurate and auditable outcomes, significantly improving performance and cost efficiency. 

However, uncertainties in mortgage volumes and pricing model adoption may impact financial performance in the to-be-reported quarter. Rising debt levels also remain a concern.

What Our Model Says

Per the Zacks model, the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That’s the exact case here.

Fair Isaac currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.95% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are some companies worth considering, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings in their upcoming releases:

Ametek AME has an Earnings ESP of +0.61% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Ametek shares have gained 19.3% in the trailing 12-month period. AME is set to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 3, 2026.

Amphenol APH has an Earnings ESP of +3.78% and a Zacks Rank #2. 

Amphenol shares have gained 123.7% in the past 12-month period. APH is likely to report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on Jan. 28, 2026.

ASML Holdings ASML has an Earnings ESP of +2.00% and a Zacks Rank #2. 

ASML Holdings shares have gained 101.2% in the past 12-month period. ASML is likely to report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on Jan. 28, 2026.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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