Vale to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

Vale S.A. VALE is expected to report a decline in its bottom and top lines when it reports first-quarter 2025 results on April 24, after market close. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Vale’s sales is pegged at $8.16 billion, indicating a 3.5% decrease from the year-ago quarter's figure. The consensus mark for earnings has moved down 14% over the past 60 days to 37 cents per share. The figure indicates a 5.1% year-over-year decline.

VALE’s Earnings Surprise History

VALE's earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters and beat the mark in the other two, delivering an average negative surprise of 4.9%. (Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)

Factors Likely to Have Shaped Vale's Q1 Performance

Vale recently provided its first-quarter production and sales update, which may show how it is likely to fare in the to-be-reported quarter. Iron ore production was around 67.7 Mt, down 4.5% year over year. Pellet production was down 15.2% year over year to 7.2 Mt. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for iron ore production for the quarter was 67.6 Mt. 

Iron ore fines sales rose 8% from the year-ago quarter to 56.8 Mt. Pellet sales were down 18.8% to around 7.5 Mt. Total iron ore sales were up 3.6% year over year to 66.1 Mt. The average realized iron ore fines price was $90.8 per ton in the quarter, down 9.8% year over year. Realized prices for iron ore pellets declined 18.1% to $140.8 per ton. 

Nickel sales were recorded at 38.9 kt, up 17.5% from the year-ago quarter’s figure. The figure was lower than the consensus estimate of 40.4 kt. The average realized nickel price was $16,106 per ton, down 4% from the year-ago quarter. This was in line with the decrease in LME nickel reference prices. 
Vale sold 81.9 kt of copper in the first quarter, which was 6.6% higher than the prior-year quarter's figure. The figure missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 85 kt.

The average realized price for copper operations only (Salobo and Sossego) was $8,891 per ton, up 15.7% year over year. The average realized copper price for all operations (including copper sales originating from nickel operations) was $8,630 per ton.

Overall, Vale’s revenues are likely to have gained from higher sales volumes for copper, iron ore and nickel and elevated copper prices compared with the year-ago quarter. This is expected to have been offset by lower prices for iron ore and nickel.

The company has been facing higher input costs, particularly diesel and freight costs, in the past few quarters. This is likely to have weighed on its margins. However, cost-control efforts are expected to have negated some of this impact.

What the Zacks Model Unveils for VALE

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Vale this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat but that is not the case here.

Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for Vale is 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Vale currently has a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

VALE Stock’s Price Performance

In a year, shares of Vale have lost 25.3% compared with the industry’s 24.8% decline.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some stocks with the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in their upcoming releases.

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. CF, scheduled to release earnings on May 7, has an Earnings ESP of +6.74% and a Zacks Rank of 3. 

The consensus estimate for CF Industries’ earnings for the first quarter of 2025 is pegged at $1.43 per share, indicating year-over-year growth of 38.8%. CF Industries has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 18.1%.

Kinross Gold Corporation KGC, scheduled to release first-quarter earnings on May 6, has an Earnings ESP of +13.21%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Kinross Gold's earnings for the first quarter of 2025 is pegged at 21 cents per share, indicating a surge of 110% from the year-ago quarter’s actual. KGC currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. Kinross Gold has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 23.7%.

Methanex Corporation MEOH, scheduled to release first-quarter earnings on April 30, has an Earnings ESP of +4.74%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Methanex's earnings for the first quarter of 2025 is pegged at $1.25 per share, indicating a surge of 92.3% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. MEOH currently has a Zacks Rank of 3. Methanex has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 85.2%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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