Progressive's Q4 Earnings & Revenues Beat Estimates on Higher Premiums

The Progressive Corporation’s PGR fourth-quarter 2025 earnings per share of $4.67 beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.2%. The bottom line increased 14.4% year over year. 

Operating revenues increased 10.6% year over year to $22.49 billion and beat the consensus estimate by 2.5%.

Behind the Headlines

Net premiums written were $19.5 billion in the quarter, up 8% from $18.1 billion a year ago.

Net premiums earned grew 10% to $21 billion. The reported figure surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $20.9 billion. 

Net realized gain on securities was $257 million versus a loss of $53 million in the year-ago quarter.

Combined ratio — the percentage of premiums paid out as claims and expenses — deteriorated 10 basis points (bps) from the prior-year quarter’s level to 88.

Full-Year Highlights

Operating revenues grew 15.7% year over year to $86.9 billion, driven by 15.3% higher net premiums earned, a 26.5% increase in net investment income, a 12.4% rise in fees and other revenues, and 22% higher service. 

Total expenses rose 13.5% to $73.4 billion, attributable to 10% higher losses and loss adjustment expenses, a 13.2% increase in policy acquisition costs, a 19.7% rise in other underwriting expenses, an 18.3% jump in service expenses, a 17.2% improvement in investment expenses, and a policyholder credit expense.

Combined ratio improved 140 bps to 87.4.

December Policies in Force

Policies in force were solid in the Personal Lines segment, increasing 11% from the year-ago month’s figure to 37.4 million. Special Lines improved 7% to 6.9 million.

In the Personal Auto segment, Direct Auto increased 14% year over year to 16 million, while Agency Auto increased 10% to 10.8 million.

Progressive’s Commercial Auto segment rose 4% year over year to 1.2 million. The Property business had 3.6 million policies in force, up 4%.

Financial Update

Progressive’s book value per share was $51.74 as of Dec. 30, 2025, up 18.4% from $43.67 as of Dec. 30, 2024.

Return on equity in December 2025 was 40.1%, up from 36.4% reported in the year-ago period. The total debt-to-total capital ratio improved 270 bps to 18.5.

Zacks Rank

Progressive currently has a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).  

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Performance of Other Insurers

The Travelers Companies, Inc. TRV reported fourth-quarter 2025 core income of $11.13 per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 32% and improved 22% year over year. Travelers’ total revenues increased 3.2% from the year-ago quarter to $12.4 billion, primarily driven by higher premiums, net investment income, and other revenues. The top line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.08%.

Net written premiums increased 1% year over year to a record $10.8 billion. Net investment income increased 10.3% year over year to $1 billion. The figure matched the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Travelers witnessed an underwriting gain of $1.7 billion, up 21.7% year over year. The consolidated underlying combined ratio of 82.2 improved 180 bps year over year. 

RLI Corp. RLI reported fourth-quarter 2025 operating earnings of 94 cents per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 23.6%. The bottom line increased 80.8% from the prior-year quarter. Operating revenues for the reported quarter were $449 million, up 3% year over year. The top line missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.4%.

Gross premiums written decreased 2.1% year over year to $463.2 million. This can be attributed to the poor performance of the Property Segment. Our estimate was $505.2 million. Net investment income increased 9.2% year over year to $42.3 million. The Zacks Consensus Estimate was $42.9 million, while our estimate for the metric was pegged at $44.5 million. The investment portfolio’s total return was 1.5% in the quarter.

W.R. Berkley Corporation’s WRB fourth-quarter 2025 operating income of $1.13 per share missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.9%. The bottom line remained flat year over year. W.R. Berkley’s net premiums written were $3 billion, up 2.1% year over year. The figure was lower than our estimate of $3.2 billion. Operating revenues came in at $3.7 billion, up 5.9% year over year. However, the top line missed the consensus estimate by 0.9%.

Net investment income grew 6.6% to $338.2 million. Total expenses increased 7.2% to $3.1 billion, driven by higher losses and loss expenses. This was quite close to our estimate of $3.2 billion.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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