What's in the Offing for Marathon Petroleum in Q4 Earnings?

Marathon Petroleum Corporation MPC is set to release fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on Feb. 3, 2026. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at a profit of $2.71 per share on revenues of $29.6 billion.

Let us delve into the factors that might have influenced MPC’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter. Before that, it is worth taking a look at the company’s performance in the last reported quarter.

Highlights of MPC’s Q3 Earnings & Surprise History

In the third quarter, the Findlay, OH-based downstream operator’s adjusted earnings of $3.01 per share missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.11 due to a $56 million charge from the quarterly fair value remeasurement of performance-based stock compensation. Revenues of $35.8 billion beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $30.8 billion and increased 1.3% year over year.

Marathon Petroleum’s earnings beat the consensus estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed in one, delivering an average surprise of 316.3%.  

This is depicted in the graph below. 

Marathon Petroleum Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Marathon Petroleum Corporation price-eps-surprise | Marathon Petroleum Corporation Quote

Trend in Estimate Revision for MPC

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth-quarter bottom line has been revised 31% downward in the past 60 days. The estimated figure indicates a 252% year-over-year surge. However, the top-line estimate implies a 11.5% decrease from the year-ago period’s level.

Factors to Consider Ahead of MPC’s Q4 Release

Marathon Petroleum makes money through two main segments, Refining & Marketing and Midstream. The Refining & Marketing segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks, purchases refined products and ethanol for resale and distributes refined products like transportation fuels, heavy fuel oil, asphalt, propane and petrochemicals. The Midstream segment transports, stores, distributes and markets crude oil and refined products, and gathers, processes and transports natural gas and natural gas liquids.

Marathon Petroleum’s weaker margin capture could weigh on its earnings in the near term. In the third quarter of 2025, capture fell to 96% due to West Coast margin compression, jet-to-diesel spread volatility, inventory headwinds and downtime at the Galveston Bay resid hydrocracker. The to-be-reported quarter’s profitability might have been hurt despite high utilization if such market-driven pressures persisted.

Additionally, higher costs and lower utilization guidance may have weighed on fourth-quarter performance. The company expects its fourth-quarter utilization to drop to about 90% alongside elevated turnaround expenses of about $420 million, mainly on the West Coast. Combined with projected operating costs of $5.80 per barrel, these factors are likely to have compressed margins and cash flow in the quarter.

At the same time, while Marathon has been investing in renewable diesel and broader energy transition projects, this segment is likely to have continued to face persistent headwinds, including softer margins and ongoing start-up losses during the fourth quarter.

What Does Our Model Say About MPC?

The proven Zacks model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Marathon Petroleum this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of beating estimates. This is not the case here.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

MPC’s Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, for this company is 0.00%.

MPC’s Zacks Rank:  MPC currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

Stocks to Consider

Here are some firms from the energy space that you may want to consider, as these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.

Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. PTEN currently has an Earnings ESP of +19.15% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

PTEN is scheduled to release earnings on Feb. 4. Notably, Patterson’s earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters and beat the other two, delivering a positive average surprise of 17.5%. Valued at around $2.8 billion, the company’s shares have lost 11.3% in a year.

BP p.l.c. BP presently has an Earnings ESP of +2.47% and a Zacks Rank #3. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Feb. 10.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BP’s 2025 revenues indicates 5.2% year-over-year growth.Valued at around $98.1 billion, the company’s shares have gained 21% in a year.

Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. PAA currently has an Earnings ESP of +15.06% and a Zacks Rank of 3. It is scheduled to release earnings on Feb. 6.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Plains All American Pipeline’s 2025 earnings per share indicates 0.7% year-over-year growth. Valued at around $13.8 billion, the company’s shares have lost 3.8% in a year.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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