COLM to Report Q4 Earnings: What Should Investors Expect?

Columbia Sportswear Company COLM is likely to register a decline in both top and bottom lines when it reports fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on Feb. 3, after market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter revenues is pegged at $1.04 billion, which indicates 5.5% decrease from the year-ago period. This is in sync with the company’s guidance, which indicates a net sales decline of 5-8% to $1.01-$1.04 billion.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings per share has been unchanged at $1.22 over the past 30 days, which implies a decline of 32.2% from the year-ago period’s actual. Management has guided earnings between $1.04 and $1.34 per share.

COLM delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 13.2%, on average.

Factors Likely to Influence COLM’s Q4 Results

Columbia Sportswear’s fourth-quarter top line was likely pressured by the normalization of wholesale shipment timing following earlier-than-planned shipments in the third quarter, primarily in the U.S. Management indicated that the absence of nearly $40 million in pull-forward wholesale shipments created a more challenging comparison in the fourth quarter, particularly for the wholesale channel. As a result, reported sales comparisons entering the winter season were tougher than the prior year.

U.S. consumer demand conditions further pressured fourth-quarter sales. Direct-to-consumer performance remained pressured, reflecting soft e-commerce traffic and the year-over-year reduction in temporary clearance locations, while productivity at existing stores declined modestly. In addition, delayed cold weather across key markets slowed early winter sell-through of cold-weather apparel, a critical category for the fourth quarter. Although management noted some improvement later in October, weather volatility remained a key risk to fully capturing seasonal demand in the fourth quarter.

International markets continued to deliver healthier performance relative to the United States, with management highlighting ongoing strength in EMEA and improving trends in China, supported by localized marketing efforts and early Double 11 presales activity. However, management also acknowledged that the scale of the U.S. business meant international growth was not sufficient to fully offset domestic softness at the consolidated level during the quarter. 

On the bottom line, fourth-quarter profitability is likely to have been negatively impacted by higher cost pressures, most notably tariffs. Management projected tariff-related headwinds of $20-$25 million for the fourth quarter, suggesting a rise from the $15 million reported in the third quarter, indicating a greater year-over-year drag on the gross margin.

Higher SG&A spending is also likely to have pressured operating leverage, as the company continued to invest in marketing and demand creation to support the ACCELERATE Growth Strategy and the Engineered for Whatever brand platform. With revenues under pressure and costs elevated, management expects SG&A spending to grow in the low to mid-single-digit range in the fourth quarter.

What the Zacks Model Predicts for COLM

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Columbia Sportswear this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that is not the case here.

Columbia Sportswear has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are some companies worth considering, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

Under Armour, Inc. UAA has an Earnings ESP of +68.75% and sports a Zacks Rank of 1 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here. 

The consensus estimate for Under Armour’s third-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings is pegged at a loss of 2 cents per share, implying a decline of 125% from the year-ago quarter’s actual. For Under Armour’s quarterly revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at $1.32 billion, which indicates a decrease of 5.9% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. UAA delivered an earnings surprise of 33.3% in the second quarter.

Carter’s Inc. CRI currently has an Earnings ESP of +3.93% and flaunts a Zacks Rank #1. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2025 revenues is pegged at $866.8 million, indicating 0.8% growth from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.

The consensus estimate for Carter’s earnings is pegged at earnings of $1.66 per share, implying a 30.5% decline from the year-ago quarter’s actual. CRI delivered a negative earnings surprise of 5.1% in the last quarter.

Steven Madden, Ltd. SHOO currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.92% and a Zacks Rank of 2. SHOO is likely to register a top-line increase when it reports fourth-quarter 2025 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its quarterly revenues is pegged at $753.3 million, indicating a 29.4% rise from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.

The consensus estimate for Steven Madden’s earnings is pegged at 46 cents per share, implying a 16.4% decline from the year-ago quarter. SHOO delivered a negative earnings surprise of 2.3% in the third quarter.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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