What's in Store for Magnolia Oil & Gas Stock in Q4 Earnings?

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation MGY is set to report fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on Feb. 5. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 36 cents per share and the same for revenues is pinned at $312.3 million.

Let us delve into the factors that might have influenced MGY’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter. Before that, it is worth taking a look at the company’s performance in the last reported quarter.

Highlights of MGY’s Q3 Earnings & Surprise History

In the last reported quarter, the Houston, TX-based oil and gas exploration and production company reported a third-quarter 2025 net profit of 41 cents per share, which was in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate. This was primarily driven by a healthy increase in production volumes. The oil and gas exploration and production company reported total revenues of $324.9 million, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $322 million.

MGY’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate three times in the four quarters and were in line once, delivering an average surprise of 4.45%.

This is depicted in the graph below: 

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp Price and EPS Surprise

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp price-eps-surprise | Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp Quote

Trend in MGY’s Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2025 earnings has remained unchanged, with a downward revision recorded in the past seven days. The estimated figure indicates a 26.53% year-over-year decrease. Additionally, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues indicates a decline of 4.38 % from the year-ago period’s level.

Factors to Consider Ahead of MGY’s Q4 Release

Magnolia Oil & Gas generates revenues by acquiring land or leases with oil and natural gas reserves, primarily in South Texas. The firm explores these properties, drills wells to extract the oil and gas, and sells the resources to other energy companies. By focusing on areas such as the Eagle Ford Shale and Austin Chalk, MGY profits from the difference between the costs of drilling and production and the income from selling the extracted oil and gas.

MGY's total revenues are expected to have suffered in the quarter to be reported. The Zacks Consensus Estimate predicts fourth-quarter revenues to decrease from the year-ago quarter’s $327 million. On another bearish note, the appreciation in MGY’s costs is expected to have dented its bottom line. To begin with, MGY’s total operating expenses are expected to reach $217.6 million in the fourth quarter, which is 7.5% up from last quarter’s level of $202.5 million.

General and administrative expenses are expected to climb to $24.2 million in the fourth quarter, a 14.1% up from the year-ago quarter’s level. In addition, gathering, transportation and processing expenses are projected to reach $18 million in the fourth quarter, which is 47.6% up from the year-ago quarter’s level. Meanwhile, lease operating expenses are projected to reach $48.3 million in the fourth quarter, which is 5.2% up from the year-ago quarter’s level.

On a positive note, our model predicts that the company’s fourth-quarter production volumes to have risen, supported by higher average realized prices for natural gas liquids and natural gas. This combination might have helped drive improved performance and a favorable outlook for the company.

What Does Our Model Predict for MGY?

The proven Zacks model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Magnolia Oil & Gas this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that is not the case here.

Earnings ESP of MGY: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, for this company is -2.01%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

MGY’s Zacks Rank: MGY currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are some firms from the energy space that you may want to consider, as these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.

BP plc BP is scheduled to release earnings on Feb. 10. The firm has an Earnings ESP of +2.47% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

BP is a global integrated energy company engaged in the exploration, production, refining and distribution of oil and natural gas, as well as renewable energy solutions. Its earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters and beat the same in the remaining two, delivering an average surprise of 5.91%.

Antero Resources Corporation AR has an Earnings ESP of +7.04% and a Zacks Rank #3. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Feb. 11.

Antero Resources is an independent exploration and production company focused on the development of natural gas, NGLs and oil resources primarily in the Appalachian Basin. AR’s earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and beat the same in the remaining one, delivering an average surprise of 3.72%.

Energy Transfer (ET) has an Earnings ESP of +1.97% and a Zacks Rank #3. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Feb. 17. The company’s earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters and beat the same in the remaining two, delivering an average negative surprise of 6.38%.

Energy Transfer is a leading U.S. energy company that owns and operates one of the largest networks of pipelines and energy infrastructure. It transports and stores natural gas, crude oil, natural gas liquids and refined products across key production and consumption regions.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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