POST's Q1 Earnings Coming Up: Will the Stock Extend Its Beat Streak?

Post Holdings, Inc. POST is set to unveil its first-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings on Feb. 5, after market close. Investors are eager to see if the company can beat market expectations.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $2.2 billion, implying 9.6% growth from the prior year. Meanwhile, the consensus mark for earnings has slipped by 11 cents over the past 30 days to $1.66 per share, suggesting a 4.1% decline from the year-ago period. POST has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 16.5%, on average.

Post Holdings, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Post Holdings, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Post Holdings, Inc. Quote

Key Factors to Observe for POST's Q1 Earnings

Post Holdings’ quarterly performance is likely to have benefited from solid momentum across its core segments, particularly Foodservice and Refrigerated Retail, driven by favorable volume trends and improving supply conditions. 
Foodservice trends entering the quarter appear constructive, supported by higher egg and potato volumes exiting the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025. In Refrigerated Retail, dinner sides posted volume growth, which is likely to have provided a modest tailwind in the quarter to be reported. With egg supply back in balance, the company has entered the year planning for a more normalized operating environment, allowing management to refocus on driving volume growth across both Foodservice and Refrigerated Retail channels.

At its last earnings call, management indicated demand remains resilient, especially for higher value-added egg products. Egg supply previously affected by HPAI recovered as expected in the fourth quarter, allowing pricing dynamics to gradually normalize. The business appears well-positioned as operations transition toward a more normalized growth profile, with improving supply conditions and continued demand for premium egg products likely supporting overall performance.
First-quarter results are expected to benefit from seasonal tailwinds in Refrigerated Retail. Additionally, the segment should receive incremental support from new private label products that began shipping toward the end of fiscal 2025, enabling the company to address demand across a wider range of price points and consumer segments.

However, HPAI normalization is expected to have pressured first-quarter EBITDA, along with typical seasonal declines in U.S. and U.K. cereal performance. Consequently, near-term profitability is likely to have moderated as the business transitions toward a more normalized operating environment.

What the Zacks Model Says About POST’s Q1 Earnings

As investors prepare for Post Holdings’ fourth-quarter announcement, the question looms regarding earnings beat or miss. Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for POST this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that’s not the case here.

POST has an Earnings ESP of -2.82% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are three companies you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this season:

The Estee Lauder Company, Inc. EL currently has an Earnings ESP of +6.62% and a Zacks Rank #2. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings per share is pegged at 83 cents, implying 33.9% year-over-year growth. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $4.22 billion, which indicates an increase of 5.3% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. EL has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 82.6%, on average.

The Hershey Company HSY has an Earnings ESP of +0.78% and currently carries a Zacks Rank of 1. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings per share is pegged at $1.40, implying a 48% year-over-year decline.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $3 billion, which indicates an increase of 4% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. HSY has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 15%, on average.

BJ’s Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. BJ has an Earnings ESP of +0.69% and currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings per share is pegged at 92 cents, implying a 1.08% year-over-year decline.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $5.6 billion, which indicates an increase of 6.2% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. BJ has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 10.3%, on average.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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