Will Rising Costs Hit Molina's Q4 Earnings? Key Insights Here

Molina Healthcare, Inc price-consensus-chart | Molina Healthcare, Inc Quote

Q4 Earnings Whispers for MOH

Our proven model does not conclusively predict earnings beat for the company this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here.

MOH has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell). You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

What’s Shaping MOH’s Q4 Results?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for premiums indicates growth of 2.4% year over year in the fourth quarter, while our model estimate suggests a 2.1% increase. The consensus estimate for the medicare premiums is pinned at $1.4 billion, up 4.9% year over year.

While our model indicates a 6.4% year-over-year decrease in medicaid membership. MOH’s medicare membership is projected to witness 3.3% growth. Furthermore, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the marketplace membership suggests a 64.7% increase from the year-ago period’s level.

However, the consensus mark for the medical care ratio (MCR) in marketplace is pegged at 94.8% in the to-be-reported quarter, up from 83.3% a year ago. The consensus mark for total MCR is pegged at almost 93%, up from 90.2% a year ago. The Zacks Consensus Estimates for Medicaid MCR is pegged at 92.47%, up from 90.2% a year ago.

Along with this, rising costs and lower investment income make earnings beat uncertain. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for investment income indicates a 9.8% decline year over year. Our model estimate for fourth-quarter total operating expenses suggests a 6.1% increase from the year-ago period, due to higher medical care costs and G&A expenses.

How Are Other HMOs Placed This Quarter?

Major peers UnitedHealth Group Incorporated UNH and Elevance Health, Inc. ELV have already reported fourth-quarter results and The Cigna Group CI is scheduled to report this week.

UnitedHealth reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share of $2.11, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.09 on higher commercial fee-based membership and the strength witnessed in Optum Rx. However, the bottom line declined 69% year over year due to elevated medical costs. UnitedHealth’s revenues rose 12% year over year to $113.2 billion.

Elevance Health reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted EPS of $3.33, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 7.3% on the back of strong growth in premiums. Segment-wise, the Carelon division posted a robust revenue surge, aided by buyout and scaling risk-based services, while Health Benefits saw increased premium yields and Medicare Advantage membership growth. However, the upside was partly offset by a decline in Elevance Health’s overall medical membership and an elevated expense level.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects an 18.5% year-over-year increase in Cigna Group’s fourth-quarter 2025 earnings. Meanwhile, the consensus estimate for revenues implies 6.5% growth from the prior-year period’s level. The bottom-line estimate has remained unchanged over the past 60 days. CI beat earnings estimates in three of the past four quarters and missed once.